IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsb/bilten/7.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Impact of macroeconomic stability on private fixed investments in selected countries of Central and Southeast Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Milan Trajkovic

    (National Bank of Serbia)

Abstract

The paper explores cause-and-effect relationship between macroeconomic stability and private fixed investments in the 2001–2019 period in Central and Southeast European countries applying inflation targeting regime in their monetary policies. Change in the inflation rate, share of the current account deficit in GDP and change in the share of fiscal deficit in GDP are used to proxy macroeconomic stability. For the purpose of the analysis, a fixed effects panel model has been estimated, with simultaneous control for standard investment determinants (quality of institutions, external demand, relative price of capital goods, real interest rate, openness of the economy and financial market development). The results show that improved indicators of macroeconomic stability have a positive impact on the share of private fixed investments in GDP, boosting the outlook for economic growth. The estimated model confirms that both improved quality of institutions and other standard private investment determinants enhance the share of private fixed investments in GDP. The analysis also indicates robustness both when applying the fixed or random effects panel and different control variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Milan Trajkovic, 2022. "Impact of macroeconomic stability on private fixed investments in selected countries of Central and Southeast Europe," Working Papers Bulletin 7, National Bank of Serbia.
    • Handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbs.rs/documents-eng/publikacije/wp_bulletin/wp_bulletin_03_22_2.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:agr:journl:v:9(586):y:2013:i:9(586):p:39-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1995. "Volatility, Investment and Disappointment Aversion," NBER Working Papers 5386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2014. "Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: US Inflation and Output Growth," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2014-04, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    6. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    7. Leff, Nathaniel H. & Sato, Kazuo, 1987. "The prospects for higher domestic savings rates in Latin America," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 559-576.
    8. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
    9. Pierpaolo Benigno & Luca Antonio Ricci & Paolo Surico, 2015. "Unemployment and Productivity in the Long Run: The Role of Macroeconomic Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 698-709, July.
    10. Timothy Besley & Hannes Mueller, 2018. "Institutions, Volatility, and Investment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 604-649.
    11. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    12. Anca GHERMAN & George ŞTEFAN & Adriana FILIP, 2013. "Exchange rate volatility effects on export competitiveness. Romanian Case," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(9(586)), pages 39-50, September.
    13. Luis Servén, 2003. "ERRATUM: Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 492-492, May.
    14. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    16. Fogli, Alessandra & Perri, Fabrizio, 2015. "Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Luis Servén, 2003. "Real-Exchange-Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in LDCS," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 212-218, February.
    18. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    19. Bevan, D.L. & Collier, P. & Gunning, J.W., 1990. "Temporary Trade Shocks And Dynamic Adjustment," Economics Series Working Papers 9993, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    21. Demir, Firat, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 1127-1140, August.
    22. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    23. Abdur R. Chowdhury & Mark Wheeler, 2015. "The impact of output and exchange rate volatility on fixed private investment: evidence from selected G7 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2628-2641, May.
    24. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    25. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    26. Devarajan, Shantayanan & de Melo, Jaime, 1987. "Evaluating participation in African monetary unions: A statistical analysis of the CFA Zones," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 483-496, April.
    27. Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina, 2014. "Macroeconomic volatility: The role of the informal economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 454-469.
    28. Farrant, Katie & Peersman, Gert, 2006. "Is the Exchange Rate a Shock Absorber or a Source of Shocks? New Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 939-961, June.
    29. Saman, Corina, 2010. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment – Empirical Analysis for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 155-164, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masino, Serena, 2013. "Macro-Institutional Instability and the Incentive to Innovate," MPRA Paper 45938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "The adjustment of plant-level investment to exchange rate fluctuations in Tunisia: do the size and the ownership structure matter?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2487-2505.
    3. Pelin Öge Güney, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Investment Relationship for Turkey," Working Papers 1332, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    4. Martin Ruzima & Micheal Kofi Boachie, 2018. "Exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in BRICS economies," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 65-77, April.
    5. Cavallo, Eduardo & Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & León, John Jairo, 2013. "The role of relative price volatility in the efficiency of investment allocation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-18.
    6. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2020. "The effects of transitory and permanent inflation uncertainty on investment in Ghana," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-217, February.
    7. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    8. Sarkar, Sudipto, 2021. "The uncertainty-investment relationship with endogenous capacity," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    9. Yigal Menashe, 2005. "Is the Firm-Level Relationship between Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment Non- Linear?," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.12, Bank of Israel.
    10. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    11. Anubha Dhasmana, 2021. "Employment growth in the face of exchange rate uncertainty: The role of trade and foreign equity finance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(1), pages 79-117, July.
    12. Bayraktar, Nihal & Fofack, Hippolyte, 2007. "Specification of investment functions in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4171, The World Bank.
    13. Chiranjivi, GVS & Sensarma, Rudra, 2023. "The effects of economic and financial shocks on private investment: A wavelet study of return and volatility spillovers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Nasha Ananchotikul & Nuwat Nookhwun & Paiboon Pongpaichet & Songklod Rastapana & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2010. "The Future of Monetary Policy: Roles of Financial Stability and Exchange Rate," Working Papers 2010-07, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    15. Girijasankar Mallik & Anis Chowdhury, 2011. "Effect of inflation uncertainty, output uncertainty and oil price on inflation and growth in Australia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 414-429, September.
    16. Bulan, Laarni & Mayer, Christopher & Somerville, C. Tsuriel, 2009. "Irreversible investment, real options, and competition: Evidence from real estate development," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 237-251, May.
    17. Cuneyt KILIC & Y lmaz BAYAR & Feyza ARICA, 2014. "Effects of Currency Unions on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: The European Economic and Monetary Union Case," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 8-15.
    18. Astorga, Pablo, 2010. "A century of economic growth in Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 232-243, July.
    19. Adama Messanh COMBEY, 2016. "The Main Determinants of Private Investments in the WAEMU Zone: The Dynamic Approach," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 731-743, December.
    20. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    private investments; inflation; current account deficit; fiscal deficit; quality of institutions; real interest rate; relative price of capital goods; external demand; openess of the economy; financial market development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsb:bilten:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marko Miseljic (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbjgvyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.