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Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization

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When the choice of the nominal anchor and timing of inflation stabilization is analyzed with models of political business cycles, there is room for political opportunism of policymakers. The different business cycles associated with exchange rate-based (ERBS) and money-based stabilizations (MBS) imply that the decision regarding the timing and nominal anchor of stabilization may be affected by the timing of elections. Namely, an opportunistic policymaker is more likely to implement an ERBS than a MBS before elections, while the opposite happens after elections. Empirical results obtained when estimating a multinomial logit model for a sample of 35 stabilization programs implemented in chronic inflation countries clearly support this hypothesis.

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  • Vítor Castro & Francisco José Veiga, 2002. "Political Business Cycles and Inflation Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 9/2002, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:9/2002
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political business cycles 40 years after Nordhaus," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 235-259, January.
    2. Ari Aisen & Francisco Veiga, 2008. "Political instability and inflation volatility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 207-223, June.
    3. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01291401, HAL.
    4. Francisco Joséveiga, 2005. "Does IMF Support Accelerate Inflation Stabilization?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 321-340, October.
    5. Seghezza, Elena & Morelli, Pierluigi, 2014. "Conflict inflation and delayed stabilization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 171-184.
    6. Gopal K. Basak & Mrinal K. Ghosh & Diganta Mukherjee, 2019. "A Stochastic Model with Inflation, Growth and Technology for the Political Business Cycle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(1), pages 125-140, January.
    7. Eslava, Marcela, 2006. "The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: Survey," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3343, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Eric Dubois, 2016. "Political Business Cycles 40 Years after Nordhaus," Post-Print hal-01291401, HAL.
    9. Imène Guetat, 2016. "Economic growth, government size and political instability," Post-Print hal-04097904, HAL.
    10. Stefan Krause & Fabio Méndez, 2005. "Policy Makers' Preferences, Party Ideology, and the Political Business Cycle," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(4), pages 752-767, April.
    11. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2014. "The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 458-464.
    12. Castro, Vitor & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2004. "Political business cycles and inflation stabilization," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-6, April.
    13. Francisco Jose Veiga, 2008. "Why do stabilizations fail?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 135-149.
    14. Vítor Castro, 2003. "The Impact of Conflicts of Interest on Inflation Stabilization," NIPE Working Papers 8/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Sergey Sinelnikov & Pavel Kadochnikov & Ilya Trunin, 2008. "From Elections to Appointments of the Regional Governors: Major Challenges and Outcomes," Published Papers 2, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2008.
    16. Erdal Karagol & Aziz Turhan, 2008. "External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Political Business Cycles In Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 217-224.
    17. Daniłowska, Alina, 2011. "External financing of local governments’ expenditure in the rural areas in Poland," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 11(26), pages 1-9, September.
    18. Friesenbichler, Klaus, 2018. "Inflation and Broadband Revisited: Evidence from an OECD Panel. A replication study of Yi and Choi (Journal of Policy Modeling, 2005)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 2(2018-1), pages 1-21.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation stabilization; nominal anchors; political business cycles.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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