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Why do stabilizations fail?

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  • Francisco Veiga

Abstract

This paper is an empirical analysis of the likelihood of failure of inflation stabilization programs. Random effects logit models are estimated on a dataset of 39 programs implemented in 10 countries, in order to determine which economic and political variables affect the probability of failure of stabilizations. This study’s main contribution is to show that political factors are very important determinants of the success or failure of stabilization programs. There is empirical evidence that political instability, party fractionalization, autocracy, longer time in office and left‐wing ideological orientation of incumbents lead to higher probabilities of failure of stabilization attempts.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Veiga, 2008. "Why do stabilizations fail?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 135-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecprf:v:11:y:2008:i:2:p:135-149
    DOI: 10.1080/17487870802213886
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Liviatan, Nissan, 1988. "Inflationary rigidities and stabilization policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4, The World Bank.
    2. Mr. A. J Hamann & Mr. Alessandro Prati, 2002. "Why Do Many Disinflations Fail? the Importance of Luck, Timing, and Political Institutions," IMF Working Papers 2002/228, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Kiguel, Miguel A & Liviatan, Nissan, 1988. "Inflationary Rigidities and Orthodox Stabilization Policies: Lessons from Latin America," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(3), pages 273-298, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Aromi & Marcos Dal Bianco, 2014. "Un analisis de los desequilibrios del tipo de cambio real argentino bajo cambios de regimen," Working Papers 1431, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    2. Waldman Joaquín, 2024. "Chronic inflation and the costs of not addressing an upsurge in time," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4771, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    3. Rapetti, Martin & Palazzo, Gabriel & Waldman, Joaquin, 2023. "Planes de estabilización: Evidencia de América Latina [Stabilization plans: Evidence from Latin America]," MPRA Paper 118910, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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