IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ngi/dpaper/14-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How much can foreign multinationals affect the Chinese economy? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of Japanese FDI

Author

Listed:
  • María C. Latorre

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto.)

  • Nobuhiro Hosoe

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

We analyze the impacts of a sharp fall Japanese of foreign direct investment (FDI) to China that occurred after the worldwide financial crisis in 2009. The study is conducted by means of a three-region (Japan, China, and the rest of the world (ROW)) recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with multinational enterprises (MNEs) driven by FDI. Our simulation experiment showed that the FDI fall would cause price rises of Japanese affiliates’ goods and a depreciation of the renminbi. These two forces with the FDI fall would heavily reduce exports and production of Japanese MNE affiliates, while increasing those in Chinese manufacturing. This, however, does not mean that China would be a gainer, because it would experience a contraction in its service sector. Its losses in its service sector would exceed the gains in the manufacturing sectors. Therefore, overall China would lose due to the FDI fall.

Suggested Citation

  • María C. Latorre & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2014. "How much can foreign multinationals affect the Chinese economy? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of Japanese FDI," GRIPS Discussion Papers 14-16, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:14-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://grips.repo.nii.ac.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=1152&item_no=1&attribute_id=20&file_no=1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "Networked FDI: Sales and Sourcing Patterns of Japanese Foreign Affiliates," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1051-1080, August.
    2. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, December.
    3. Greaney, Theresa M. & Li, Yao, 2009. "Assessing foreign direct investment relationships between China, Japan, and the United States," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 611-625, November.
    4. XING, Yuqing, 2006. "Why is China so attractive for FDI? The role of exchange rates," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 198-209.
    5. Latorre, María C. & Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Gómez-Plana, Antonio G., 2009. "The effects of multinationals on host economies: A CGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-864, September.
    6. Severine Blaise, 2005. "On the link between Japanese ODA and FDI in China: a microeconomic evaluation using conditional logit analysis," Post-Print hal-01295838, HAL.
    7. Severine Blaise, 2005. "On the link between Japanese ODA and FDI in China: a microeconomic evaluation using conditional logit analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 51-55.
    8. Petri, Peter A., 2012. "The determinants of bilateral FDI: Is Asia different?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 201-209.
    9. Cassidy, John F. & Andreosso-O'Callaghan, Bernadette, 2006. "Spatial determinants of Japanese FDI in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 512-527, December.
    10. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    11. Gómez-Plana, Antonio G. & Latorre, María C., 2014. "When multinationals leave: A CGE analysis of the impact of divestments," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-41.
    12. Wi Saeng Kim & Esmeralda Lyn & Edward Zychowicz, 2003. "Is the Source of FDI Important to Emerging Market Economies? Evidence from Japanese and U.S. FDI," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(3-4), pages 107-130, September.
    13. Shiro Armstrong, 2009. "Japanese FDI in China: determinants and performance," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 378, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Robert E. Lipsey, 2002. "Home and Host Country Effects of FDI," NBER Working Papers 9293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
    16. Tanaka, Kiyoyasu & Hashiguchi, Yoshihiro, 2012. "Spatial spillovers from FDI agglomeration : evidence from the Yangtze River Delta in China," IDE Discussion Papers 354, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    17. Judith M. Dean & Mary E. Lovely & Jesse Mora, 2017. "Decomposing China-Japan-U.S. Trade: Vertical specialization, ownership, and organizational form," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Mary E Lovely (ed.), International Economic Integration and Domestic Performance, chapter 7, pages 119-132, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. María C. Latorre, 2013. "On the Differential Behaviour of National and Multinational Firms: A Within- and Across-sectors Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1294-1317, October.
    19. Norifumi Kawai, 2009. "Location Strategies of Foreign Investors in China: Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Multinationals," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 117-141.
    20. Shaoming Cheng, 2007. "Structure of Firm Location Choices: An Examination of Japanese Greenfield Investment in China," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, March.
    21. Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2014. "Japanese manufacturing facing post-Fukushima power crisis: a dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis with foreign direct investment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(17), pages 2010-2020, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Latorre, María C., 2016. "A CGE Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Tariff Reform on Female and Male Workers in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 346-366.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Latorre, María C. & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2016. "The role of Japanese FDI in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 226-241.
    2. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2015. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players (East Asia, Japan, EU28 and U.S.)," MPRA Paper 62297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Zhou, Jing, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 172-188.
    4. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2021. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1225-1240.
    5. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2016. "An innovative CGE assessment of the impact of the TTIP including multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment," Conference papers 332765, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Latorre, María C., 2016. "A CGE Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Tariff Reform on Female and Male Workers in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 346-366.
    7. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    8. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2014. "Emerging economies, productivity growth and trade with resource-rich economies by 2030," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 58(4), pages 590-606, October.
    9. Kimura, Hidemi & Todo, Yasuyuki, 2010. "Is Foreign Aid a Vanguard of Foreign Direct Investment? A Gravity-Equation Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 482-497, April.
    10. Hossain, Sharif M. & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2020. "Welfare and equity impacts of cross-border factor mobility in Bangladesh: A general equilibrium analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 172-184.
    11. Lakatos, Csilla & Fukui, Tani, 2014. "The Liberalization of Retail Services in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 327-340.
    12. Latorre, Maria C., 2014. "CGE analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and tariff reform on female and male wages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7073, The World Bank.
    13. Latorre, María C. & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2013. "The role of Japanese multinationals' affiliates in China: A dynamic CGE analysis of FDI between Japan and China," Conference papers 332365, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Nielsen, Bo Bernhard & Asmussen, Christian Geisler & Weatherall, Cecilie Dohlmann, 2017. "The location choice of foreign direct investments: Empirical evidence and methodological challenges," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 62-82.
    15. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:120 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Donaubauer, Julian & Herzer, Dierk & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2012. "Does aid for education attract foreign investors? An empirical analysis for Latin America," Kiel Working Papers 1806, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Sebastian Claro, 2009. "FDI Liberalization as a Source of Comparative Advantage in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 740-753, November.
    18. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Growth in Emerging Economies: Implications for Resource-Rich Countries by 2030," Conference papers 332283, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2013. "South America’s Contribution to World Food Markets: GTAP Projections to 2030," Working Papers 145369, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    20. Latorre, María C., 2014. "A CGE analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and tariff reform on female and male wages," Conference papers 332453, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    21. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Aid for Trade and sectoral employment diversification in recipient-countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 265-295, May.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:14-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gripsjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.