IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332765.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An innovative CGE assessment of the impact of the TTIP including multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Latorre, María C.
  • Yonezawa, Hidemichi

Abstract

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is the largest agreement that has ever been negotiated with objectives going beyond trade itself. The partners account for around 40% of world trade and about a third of its GDP. It, therefore, seems to have the potential to affect world relationships. In this paper we focus on the economic impact for outsiders. To that aim we use an innovative Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) with 10 regions (US, UE28, other advanced economies, China, India, Japan, South East Asia, Latin America, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa). We analyze in detail the weight in world GDP and trade of the 10 regions, as well as their productive, export and import structures. Then we simulate the impact of the TTIP, obtaining larger estimates than previous CGEs assessing its effects, due to our innovative inclusion of Foreign Direct Investment in the CGE model. We identify the sectors in which the trade and investment integration of the US and the EU would be stronger or weaker, as well as its overall impact. Our results suggest that the effects of the TTIP would be very small but negative for outsiders, with the exception of China, which remains unaffected. This is because the Chinese export structure is heavily specialized precisely in the manufacturing sectors in which integration of the EU and the US is weaker. We find that this pattern somehow prevails among the rest of Asiatic regions, on which the impact is nearly negligible. By contrast, the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are slightly more negatively affected because of their export specialization in agriculture, food, oil and mining. Latin America would also lose a little due to its strong manufacturing integration with the US and its export specialization. We also simulate the results of an “inclusive TTIP”. With such an agreement all regions would gain, even all outsiders, while insiders would experience a more favorable impact than with the “standard TTIP”.

Suggested Citation

  • Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2016. "An innovative CGE assessment of the impact of the TTIP including multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment," Conference papers 332765, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332765
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332765/files/8313.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Latorre, María C. & Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Gómez-Plana, Antonio G., 2009. "The effects of multinationals on host economies: A CGE approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 851-864, September.
    2. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 303-377, Elsevier.
    3. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, April.
    4. James Markusen & Thomas F. Rutherford & David Tarr, 2017. "Trade and direct investment in producer services and the domestic market for expertise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 19, pages 439-458, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Balistreri, Edward J. & Rutherford, Thomas F. & Tarr, David G., 2009. "Modeling services liberalization: The case of Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 668-679, May.
    6. Robert Z. Lawrence, 2003. "Crimes and Punishments?: Retaliation under the WTO," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 372, April.
    7. Jens Matthias Arnold & Aaditya Mattoo & Gaia Narciso, 2008. "Services Inputs and Firm Productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Firm-Level Data," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 17(4), pages 578-599, August.
    8. Mar�a C. Latorre, 2012. "Industry restructuring in transition after the arrival of multinationals: a general equilibrium analysis with firm-type costs differences," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 441-463, June.
    9. Fernandes, Ana M. & Paunov, Caroline, 2012. "Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity: Evidence for Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 305-321.
    10. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2013. "The impact of FDI on the production networks between China and East Asia and the role of the U.S. and ROW as final markets," MPRA Paper 51384, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," Economics working papers 2015-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    13. María C. Latorre, 2013. "On the Differential Behaviour of National and Multinational Firms: A Within- and Across-sectors Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1294-1317, October.
    14. María C. Latorre, 2009. "The economic analysis of multinationals and foreign direct investment: a review," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 191(4), pages 97-126, December.
    15. Lionel Fontagné & Julien Gourdon & Sébastien Jean, 2013. "Transatlantic Trade: Whither Partnership, Which Economic Consequences?," CEPII Policy Brief 2013-01, CEPII research center.
    16. Gómez-Plana, Antonio G. & Latorre, María C., 2014. "When multinationals leave: A CGE analysis of the impact of divestments," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-41.
    17. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    18. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2014. "Reducing Trade Costs in East Africa: Deep Regional Integration and Multilateral Action," Conference papers 332445, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner & Rosamaria Bitetti & Omar Barbiero, 2015. "The 2013 update of the OECD's database on product market regulation: Policy insights for OECD and non-OECD countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1200, OECD Publishing.
    20. Latorre, María C., 2016. "A CGE Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Tariff Reform on Female and Male Workers in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 346-366.
    21. Fukui, Tani & Csilla Lakatos, 2012. "A Global Database of Foreign Affiliate Sales," GTAP Research Memoranda 4009, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2018. "Stopped TTIP? Its potential impact on the world and the role of neglected FDI," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 99-120.
    2. María C. Latorre & Zoryana Olekseyuk & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2020. "Foreign multinationals in service sectors: A general equilibrium analysis of Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 2830-2859, November.
    3. Latorre, María C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Zhou, Jing, 2018. "A general equilibrium analysis of FDI growth in Chinese services sectors," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 172-188.
    4. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2021. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 1225-1240.
    5. Latorre, María C., 2016. "A CGE Analysis of the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Tariff Reform on Female and Male Workers in Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 346-366.
    6. Latorre, María C. & Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2017. "Trade and FDI-related impacts of Brexit," Conference papers 332876, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2015. "FDI in China and global production networks: Assessing the role of and impact on big world players (East Asia, Japan, EU28 and U.S.)," MPRA Paper 62297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gabriela Ortiz Valverde & Maria C. Latorre, 2020. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of Brexit: Barriers to trade and immigration restrictions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 705-728, March.
    9. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2016. "Modeling of FDI in business services: Additional effects in case of Ukraine's European integration," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(7), pages 1010-1043, October.
    10. Latorre, Maria C., 2014. "CGE analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and tariff reform on female and male wages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7073, The World Bank.
    11. Zoryana Olekseyuk, 2015. "The EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and the importance of FDI," EcoMod2015 8391, EcoMod.
    12. Latorre, María C. & Hosoe, Nobuhiro, 2016. "The role of Japanese FDI in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 226-241.
    13. Gómez-Plana, Antonio G. & Latorre, María C., 2014. "When multinationals leave: A CGE analysis of the impact of divestments," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-41.
    14. Balistreri, Edward J. & Tarr, David G., 2017. "Market Structure and the impact of RCEP in The Philippines: What are the Differences between Melitz, Krugman and Armington Models," Conference papers 332835, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Latorre, Maria C. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi & Olekseyuk, Zoryana, 2022. "The EU-Mercosur agreement: An in-depth analysis of CO2 emissions and labor market results," Conference papers 333488, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2017_002 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2014. "How FDI influences the triangular trade pattern among China, East Asia and the U.S.? A CGE analysis of the sector of Electronics in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 77-88.
    18. Tarr, David G., 2013. "Putting Services and Foreign Direct Investment with Endogenous Productivity Effects in Computable General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 303-377, Elsevier.
    19. Tarr, David, 2012. "Impact of services liberalization on industry productivity, exports and development : six empirical studies in the transition countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6023, The World Bank.
    20. Latorre, María C., 2014. "A CGE analysis of the impact of foreign direct investment and tariff reform on female and male wages," Conference papers 332453, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    21. Zhou, Jing & Latorre, María C., 2013. "The impact of FDI on the production networks between China and East Asia and the role of the U.S. and ROW as final markets," MPRA Paper 51384, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332765. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.