IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/new/wpaper/2410.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evidence on Goodwin cycles across US golden age and neoliberal era

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz

    (Center of Economics for Sustainable Development (CEDES), Faculty of Economics and Government, Universidad San Sebastian, Chile)

  • Codrina Rada

    (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA)

  • Rudiger von Arnim

    (Department of Economics, University of Utah, USA)

Abstract

This paper provides a set of baseline empirical results on Goodwin cycles for the US post-war macroeconomy. Our sample consists of Hamilton-filtered series for nonfarm business sector output and labor share as well as the employment rate. Vector autoregressions (VARs) yield strong evidence for the Goodwin mechanism, i.e. profit-led activity and profit-squeeze distribution, in two (output or employment rate cycle vs. labor share cycle) and three (output, employment rate and labor share cycles) dimensions. We focus solely on the cycle rather than underlying trends, discuss how theory and empirical methods relate, and investigate whether and how the Goodwin mechanism has changed over time. To do so, we estimate split samples with standard recursive VARs for the 'golden age' (GA) and 'neoliberal era' (NE), as well as time-varying parameter VARs. Results indicate (i) overall a persistence of the Goodwin mechanism over the entire post-war period; but (ii) generally less pronounced cyclicality during NE than GA, and (iii) a weakening of the profit squeeze vis-`a-vis the employment rate over time as well as, on balance, a weakening of the profit led regime of both activity variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Barrales-Ruiz & Codrina Rada & Rudiger von Arnim, 2024. "Evidence on Goodwin cycles across US golden age and neoliberal era," Working Papers 2410, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2410
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2024/NSSR_WP_102024.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brett Fiebiger, 2018. "Semi-autonomous household expenditures as the causa causans of postwar US business cycles: the stability and instability of Luxemburg-type external markets [Cycles and trends in US net borrowing fl," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(1), pages 155-175.
    2. Deepankar Basu & Ying Chen & Jong-seok Oh, 2013. "Class struggle and economic fluctuations: VAR analysis of the post-war US economy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 575-596, September.
    3. Rada, Codrina & Tavani, Daniele & von Arnim, Rudiger & Zamparelli, Luca, 2023. "Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 442-461.
    4. Eckhard Hein, 2012. ""Financialization," distribution, capital accumulation, and productivity growth in a post-Kaleckian model," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 475-496.
    5. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    6. Yun Kim, 2013. "Household debt, financialization, and macroeconomic performance in the United States, 1951-2009," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 675-694.
    7. Jakub Mućk & Peter McAdam & Jakub Growiec, 2018. "Will The “True” Labor Share Stand Up? An Applied Survey On Labor Share Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(4), pages 961-984, September.
    8. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    9. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Codrina Rada & Ansel Shiavone & Rudiger von Arnim, 2024. "An exploration of neo-Goodwinian theory of cyclical growth," Working Papers 2403, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    2. Santetti, Marcio & Nikiforos, Michalis & von Arnim, Rudiger, 2024. "Growth, cycles, and residential investment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 313-327.
    3. Marcio Santetti, 2023. "A time-varying finance-led model for U.S. business cycles," Papers 2310.05153, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Codrina Rada & Ansel Schiavone & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: How structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1070-1093, November.
    5. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Doğuhan Sündal, 2022. "Business cycles, financial conditions, and nonlinearities," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(2), pages 343-383, May.
    6. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Rudiger von Arnim & Mikidadu Mohammed, 2023. "Income distribution and economic activity: A frequency domain causal exploration," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 306-327, May.
    7. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    9. Photis Lysandrou, 2016. "The colonization of the future: An alternative view of financialization and its portents," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 444-472, October.
    10. Zsolt Darvas, 2013. "Monetary transmission in three central European economies: evidence from time-varying coefficient vector autoregressions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 363-390, May.
    11. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2009. "VAR Analysis and the Great Moderation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1636-1652, September.
    12. Jin‐Yu Chen & Xue‐Hong Zhu & Mei‐Rui Zhong, 2021. "Time‐varying effects and structural change of oil price shocks on industrial output: Evidence from China's oil industrial chain," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3460-3472, July.
    13. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
    14. Gruber, Lutz F. & West, Mike, 2017. "Bayesian online variable selection and scalable multivariate volatility forecasting in simultaneous graphical dynamic linear models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 3-22.
    15. Francesco Bianchi, 2013. "Regime Switches, Agents' Beliefs, and Post-World War II U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 463-490.
    16. Olawale Awe O. & Adedayo Adepoju A., 2018. "Modified Recursive Bayesian Algorithm For Estimating Time-Varying Parameters In Dynamic Linear Models," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(2), pages 258-293, June.
    17. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Haroon Mumtaz & Francesco Zanetti, 2013. "The Impact of the Volatility of Monetary Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 535-558, June.
    19. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.
    20. Czudaj Robert L., 2020. "The role of uncertainty on agricultural futures markets momentum trading and volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(3), pages 1-39, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Neo-Goodwinian empirics; cyclical growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2410. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Setterfield (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.