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Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?

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  • Shioji, Etsuro

Abstract

This paper argues that the exchange rate could be a powerful transmission channel of the effects of ongoing “unconventional” monetary policies in Japan. It is shown that exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, once considered near-extinct, has come back strong in recent years. This is especially true for those items that households purchase frequently. Evidence based on VARs as well as TVP-VARs indicates that a 25% depreciation of the yen would produce a 2% increase in the prices of those items. This could have an additional benefit of raising the public’s expectation about future inflation, as their beliefs are often said to be influenced by their daily observations about prices of those items that they buy frequently.

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  • Shioji, Etsuro, 2015. "Time varying pass-through: Will the yen depreciation help Japan hit the inflation target?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 43-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:37:y:2015:i:c:p:43-58
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2015.06.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2015. "Abenomics: Why was it so successful in changing market expectations?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Abe, Naohito & Inakura, Noriko & Tonogi, Akiyuki, 2017. "Effects of the Entry and Exit of Products on Price Indexes," RCESR Discussion Paper Series DP17-2, Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Tsutomu Doita, 2016. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and its External Effects: Evidence from Japan's Exports," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(1), pages 59-79, March.
    4. repec:hok:dpaper:311 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kondo, Yoshihiro & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Ota, Rui & Sui, Qing-Yuan, 2020. "Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Ono, Masanori, 2017. "Inflation, expectation, and the real economy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 13-26.
    7. Dahem, Ahlem & Skander, Slim & Fatma, Siala Guermazi, 2017. "Time Varying VAR Analysis for Disaggregated Exchange Rate Pass-through in Tunisia," MPRA Paper 79759, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    8. SASAKI Yuri & YOSHIDA Yushi & Piotr Kansho OTSUBO, 2019. "Exchange rate pass-through on Japanese prices: Import price, producer price, and core CPI," Discussion papers 19078, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Rodriguez, Gabriel & Castillo B., Paul & Calero, Roberto & Salcedo Cisneros, Rodrigo & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2024. "Evolution of the exchange rate pass-through into prices in Peru: An empirical application using TVP-VAR-SV models," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    10. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2017. "Spillover Effects of Japan’s Quantitative and Qualitative Easing on East Asian Economies," ADBI Working Papers 631, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Sasaki, Yuri & Yoshida, Yushi & Otsubo, Piotr Kansho, 2022. "Exchange rate pass-through to Japanese prices: Import prices, producer prices, and the core CPI," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    12. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by time-varying FAVAR," Post-Print hal-03714934, HAL.
    13. Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Aqila Rafiuddin & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Gouher Ahmed & CH Paramaiah, 2023. "Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 529-543, January.
    14. Siew-Voon Soon & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2017. "Exchange Rate Pass-through (ERPT) into Domestic Prices: Evidence from a Nonlinear Perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1160-1167.
    15. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.
    16. Shioji, Etsuro, 2021. "Pass-through of oil supply shocks to domestic gasoline prices: evidence from daily data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    17. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2019. "The Effects of Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy on Asian Stock Markets," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, July.
    18. MASUJIMA Yuki & SATO Yuki, 2024. "Drivers of Post-pandemic Currency Movement: Recurring impacts of sovereign risks and oil prices," Discussion papers 24054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    20. Zakaria Moussa, 2016. "How big is the comeback? Japanese exchange rate pass-through assessed by Time-Varying FAVAR," Working Papers hal-01282811, HAL.
    21. Huong Le Thu HOANG & SATO Kiyotaka, 2016. "Exchange Rate Pass-through in Production Chains: Application of input-output analysis," Discussion papers 16034, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    22. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 245-257.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Pass-through; Expected inflation; CPI by purchase frequency class; Time series analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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