IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/9666.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Alan M. Taylor

Abstract

How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can enhance monetary cooperation and integration, it is not clear that Europe's experience translates to Latin America, where the political circumstances are different. We try to understand whether the monetary consequences of existing regional trade agreements, including but not limited to the European Union, mainly reflect spillovers from trade integration, or whether observed outcomes have been mainly about politics. Our results incline us toward the latter interpretation, leaving us pessimistic about the basis for deeper monetary cooperation. If exchange rate volatility is to be tamed, then the more widespread adoption of inflation targeting, which we find to be associated with a significant reduction in bilateral exchange rate volatility, may be the most promising path.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9666
    Note: IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9666.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Devereux, Michael B. & Lane, Philip R., 2003. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 109-132, May.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency," NBER Working Papers 6821, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1997. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," NBER Chapters, in: Regionalism versus Multilateral Trade Arrangements, pages 141-168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kuttner, Kenneth N & Posen, Adam S, 2001. "Beyond Bipolar: A Three-Dimensional Assessment of Monetary Frameworks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 369-387, October.
    7. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 193-194, February.
    8. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    9. Ernesto H. Stein & Jeffry Frieden & Piero Ghezzi, 2000. "Politics and Exchange Rates: A Cross-Country Approach to Latin America," Research Department Publications 3119, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    10. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 541-545, April.
    11. Eichengreen, B, 1996. "A More Perfect Union? The Logic of Economic Integration," Princeton Studies in International Economics 198, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    12. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
    13. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 1007-1017, August.
    14. Willem H. Buiter, 1999. "The EMU and the NAMU: What is the Case for North American Monetary Union?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(3), pages 285-305, September.
    15. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1461-1465, December.
    16. Michael Mussa, 2002. "Argentina and the Fund: From Triumph to Tragedy," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa67, February.
    17. Heliodoro Temprano Arroyo, 2002. "Latin America's integration processes in the light of the EU's experience with EMU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 173, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Shin, Kwanho & Wang, Yunjong, 2004. "Trade integration and business cycle co-movements: the case of Korea with other Asian countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 213-230, April.
    20. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, January.
    21. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, April.
    22. Brian M. Doyle & Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson & Laurence H. Meyer, 2002. "International coordination of macroeconomic policies: still alive in the new millennium?," International Finance Discussion Papers 723, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Morris Goldstein, 2017. "Managed Floating Plus," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 6, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(5), pages 1273-1289, October.
    25. ,, 2002. "Problems And Solutions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 819-821, June.
    26. Eichengreen, B. & Masson, P. & Savastano, M. & Sharma, S., 1999. "Transition Strategies and Nominal Anchors on the Road to Greater Exchange-Rate Flexibility," Princeton Essays in International Economics 213, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. John B. Taylor, 2016. "Rethinking the International Monetary System," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 239-250, Spring/Su.
    3. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo & Daniel Lederman & Maurizio Bussolo & David Gould & Andrew Mason, 2006. "Challenges of CAFTA : Maximizing the Benefits for Central America," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7127.
    4. Allegret, Jean-Pierre, 2007. "Disentangling Business Cycles and Macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and an Unobserved Components Models Approaches," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 482-514.
    5. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    8. Michel Beine & Serge Coulombe, 2005. "One Market, One Money: Evidence from Canada–United States Economic Integration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7), pages 985-1003, July.
    9. Belhadj, ARAM & Bouguezzi, WAJDI & Jedlane, NABIL, 2009. "A Common Monetary Policy For The Maghreb: The Winners and The Losers?," MPRA Paper 29701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?," NBER Working Papers 14100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. José Maria FANELLI, 2007. "Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR," G-24 Discussion Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    12. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi & Giovanni Ferri, 2006. "Revisiting the European Monetary System Experience: Were Some Members More Equal than Others?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 35(2), pages 151-172, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. Cambier, Adrien & Chardy, Matthieu & Figueiredo, Rosa & Ouorou, Adam & Poss, Michael, 2022. "Optimizing subscriber migrations for a telecommunication operator in uncertain context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(1), pages 308-321.
    3. Libura, Marek, 2007. "On the adjustment problem for linear programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 125-134, November.
    4. Christophe Loussouarn & Carine Franc & Yann Videau & Julien Mousquès, 2021. "Can General Practitioners Be More Productive? The Impact of Teamwork and Cooperation with Nurses on GP Activities," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(3), pages 680-698, March.
    5. Tschakert, Petra, 2016. "Shifting Discourses of Vilification and the Taming of Unruly Mining Landscapes in Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 123-132.
    6. Isabelle Boutron & Peter John & David J. Torgerson, 2010. "Reporting Methodological Items in Randomized Experiments in Political Science," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 628(1), pages 112-131, March.
    7. Ben Slimane, Faten & Padilla Angulo, Laura, 2019. "Strategic change and corporate governance: Evidence from the stock exchange industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 206-218.
    8. Weijun Xie & Yanfeng Ouyang & Sze Chun Wong, 2016. "Reliable Location-Routing Design Under Probabilistic Facility Disruptions," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(3), pages 1128-1138, August.
    9. Natalia Nikolaevna Natocheeva* & Yuri Alexandrovich Rovensky & Yuri Yuryevich Rusanov & Tatiana Viktorovna Belyanchikova & Anna Anatolevna Staurskaya, 2018. "Optimizing Variability of Approaches to Regulatory Financing of Higher Education Services," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 221-227:3.
    10. Sahar Validi & Arijit Bhattacharya & P. J. Byrne, 2020. "Sustainable distribution system design: a two-phase DoE-guided meta-heuristic solution approach for a three-echelon bi-objective AHP-integrated location-routing model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 290(1), pages 191-222, July.
    11. Andy Hall, 2005. "Capacity development for agricultural biotechnology in developing countries: an innovation systems view of what it is and how to develop it," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 611-630.
    12. Athinoula A. Kosti & Simon Colreavy-Donnelly & Fabio Caraffini & Zacharias A. Anastassi, 2020. "Efficient Computation of the Nonlinear Schrödinger Equation with Time-Dependent Coefficients," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-12, March.
    13. Bruno Frey, 2005. "Problems with Publishing: Existing State and Solutions," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 173-190, April.
    14. Lan, Heng-you, 2021. "Approximation-solvability of population biology systems based on p-Laplacian elliptic inequalities with demicontinuous strongly pseudo-contractive operators," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Shelly Jeffcott & Nick Pidgeon & Andrew Weyman & John Walls, 2006. "Risk, Trust, and Safety Culture in U.K. Train Operating Companies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(5), pages 1105-1121, October.
    16. Rainer Niemann, 2004. "Asymmetric Taxation and Cross-Border Investment Decisions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1219, CESifo.
    17. Zhenghua Gu & Xiaomeng Cao & Guoliang Liu & Weizhen Lu, 2014. "Optimizing Operation Rules of Sluices in River Networks Based on Knowledge-driven and Data-driven Mechanism," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(11), pages 3455-3469, September.
    18. Ian N. Gregory & Paul S. Ell, 2005. "Breaking the boundaries: geographical approaches to integrating 200 years of the census," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(2), pages 419-437, March.
    19. Alexis Comber & Paul Harris, 2018. "Geographically weighted elastic net logistic regression," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 317-341, October.
    20. Fuamenya A. Francis, 2018. "Impact of Management Practices in Industries in the Industrial ¨C Free ¨C Trade Zones in Douala, Littoral Region of Cameroon: ¡°Challenges and Prospects¡±," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(3), pages 10-26, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9666. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.