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Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches

Author

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  • Jean-Pierre Allegret

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alain Sand-Zantman

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Monetary integration in Mercosur processed in a context of strong macroeconomic volatility. This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union within this zone. Instead of taking in account all the criteria of the optimal currencies areas, this study focuses on the macroeconomic cycles in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. First, we analyse cross-correlation to identify the degree of cycle synchronization. Second, a structural VAR model is built for each country. It allows us to determine the sources of shocks which hit these countries. Third, we decompose structural innovations -especially economic policies shocks- of domestic SVAR into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components using a state-space model. We assess in what extent economic policies are coordinated between the Mercosur countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2006. "Disentangling business cycles and macroeconomic policy in Mercosur: a VAR and unobserved components model approaches," Post-Print halshs-00134317, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00134317
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00134317
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2007. "Transmission des chocs et mécanismes d'ajustement dans le Mercosur," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 101(2), pages 355-392.
    2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect again shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration," Post-Print halshs-00371069, HAL.
    3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sand-Zantman, Alain, 2009. "Does a Monetary Union protect against external shocks?: An assessment of Latin American integration," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 102-118.
    4. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2009. "Modeling the Impact of Real and Financial Shocks on Mercosur: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 359-384, July.
    5. Patrick-Hervé Mbouombouo Mfossa, 2015. "GOUVERNANCE ECONOMIQUE ET STABILISATION DES CHOCS ASYMETRIQUES: Quel mécanisme pour une meilleure viabilité de la CEMAC ?," Working Papers hal-01213989, HAL.
    6. Jean-Pierre Allégret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 0809, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    7. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Alain Sand-Zantman, 2008. "Monetary Integration Issues in Latin America: A Multivariate Assessment," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 55(3), pages 279-308, September.
    8. Patrice Borda & Nlandu Mamingi, 2007. "On the persistence of unemployment in small open economies," Working Papers hal-04053066, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; OCA; Comovement; VAR; Unobserved components model; Mercosur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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