IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unc/g24pap/46.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR

Author

Listed:
  • José Maria FANELLI

Abstract

The main goal of the paper is to discuss the problem of macroeconomic policy coordination in MERCOSUR and how it could contribute to sustaining growth. In the first part, the paper reviews the macroeconomic situation of MERCOSUR, emphasizing the role of the developments that followed the regime change in Brazil in 1999 and in other member countries afterwards. The analysis suggests that the worst consequences of the crises have been overcome and MERCOSUR will probably enter a new stage in which intra-regional trade will resume the positive trend that it showed before the crises. However, for this new stage to consolidate, it is crucial that Brazil increases its growth rate significantly. The second part analyses the characteristics of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. The paper focuses on three dimensions that are key to designing a framework for macroeconomic policy coordination. The first is cyclical movements within countries and the co-movements between MERCOSUR members. The study allows us to distinguish between the effects of common (i.e. regional) and idiosyncratic shocks. The second dimension is price and quantity dynamics and the interactions between the activity level and the real exchange rate. The third has to do with those financial market failures that contribute to creating and amplifying the shocks that impinge on the region. The last section addresses what member countries can do to support growth, macro-policy coordination, and financial integration. It is suggested that for macroeconomic coordination to progress, it is crucial to identify how the incentives to coordinate can be strengthened in order to avoid coordination failures that are similar to those that followed the post-1999 crises and that had a deleterious effect on intra-regional trade. From the study of cyclical movements, prices and financial failures, it follows that the strategy for the implementation of the coordination framework should be able to work under conditions of excess volatility; must take into account that the international financial architecture is far from developing-country friendly; and, must emphasize the role of institution-building at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • José Maria FANELLI, 2007. "Regional arrangements to support growth and macro-policy coordination in MERCOSUR," G-24 Discussion Papers 46, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:46
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/gdsmdpbg2420074_en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    2. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, April.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas," NBER Working Papers 9666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A., 2005. "Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 385-472, Elsevier.
    5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of Monetary Unification," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt791143kp, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
    7. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    8. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Charles W. Calomiris & Andrew Powell, 2000. "Can Emerging Market Bank Regulators Establish Credible Discipline? The Case of Argentina, 1992-1999," NBER Working Papers 7715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Jose Maria Fanelli & Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Juan J. Pradelli, 2002. "Determinants and Consequences of Financial Constraints Facing Firms in Argentina," Research Department Publications 3147, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    11. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
    12. Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification," NBER Working Papers 3949, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    14. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    15. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "The Economic Future of Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 3-26, Fall.
    16. Edward L. Glaeser & Rafael La Porta & Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes & Andrei Shleifer, 2004. "Do Institutions Cause Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 271-303, September.
    17. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization, Trade, and Development: Some Lessons From History," NBER Working Papers 9326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lisa Borgatti, 2011. "Economic Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 20, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. Fanelli, José María, 2002. "Growth, instability and the convertibility crisis in Argentina," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Hodler, Roland, 2014. "Do Natural Resource Revenues Hinder Financial Development? The Role of Political Institutions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-113.
    5. Perotti, Enrico & Soons, Oscar, 2019. "The Political Economy of a Diverse Monetary Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 13987, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lone Christiansen & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Thierry Tressel, 2010. "External Balance in Low-Income Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 265-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Mitra, Aniruddha & Bang, James T. & Wunnava, Phanindra V., 2011. "Financial Liberalization and the Brain Drain: A Panel Data Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 5953, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 2004. "Multiple stages of processing and the quantity anomaly in international business cycle models," Working Papers 04-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    10. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    11. Anders Bergvall, 2004. "What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 315-337, June.
    12. Grier, Kevin & Grier, Robin, 2007. "Only income diverges: A neoclassical anomaly," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 25-45, September.
    13. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    14. Adu, Raymond & Litsios, Ioannis & Baimbridge, Mark, 2019. "Real exchange rate and asymmetric shocks in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 232-249.
    15. Jorge Carrera & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon & Romain Restout, 2021. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American Countries: A Trade-Off Issue," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 141, pages 71-102.
    16. Andrew K. Rose & Saktiandi Supaat & Jacob Braude, 2009. "Fertility and the real exchange rate," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(2), pages 496-518, May.
    17. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    18. Chari, Anusha & Blair Henry, Peter, 2008. "Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 636-655, March.
    19. Bofinger, Peter & Geißendörfer, Lisa & Haas, Thomas & Mayer, Fabian, 2021. "Discovering the True Schumpeter - New Insights into the Finance and Growth Nexus," CEPR Discussion Papers 16851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:46. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joerg Mayer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/unctach.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.