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Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s

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  • Sebastian Edwards
  • Raul Susmel

Abstract

In this paper we use high frequency interest rate data for a group of Latin American countries to analyze the behavior of volatility through time. We are particularly interested in understanding whether periods of high volatility spillover across countries. Our analysis relies both on univariate and bivariate switching volatility models. Our results indicate that high-volatility episodes are, in general, short-lived, lasting from two to seven weeks. We find some weak evidence of volatility co-movements across countries. Overall, our results are not overly supportive of contagion' stories.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2000. "Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 7813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7813
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    Cited by:

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    2. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    3. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    4. Caprio, Gerard & Honohan, Patrick, 2001. "Finance for Growth: Policy Choices in a Volatile World," MPRA Paper 9929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Sarai Criado Nuevo, "undated". "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-01, FEDEA.
    6. Batra, Amit, 2004. "Stock return volatility patterns in India," Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi Working Papers 124, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
    7. Hwee Kwan CHOW & Yoonbai KIM, 2004. "The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Interest Rates in Post-Crisis Asia," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 575, Econometric Society.
    8. Ahmed Derbali, 2021. "The misalignment of real effective exchange rate: Evidence from Tunisia," IHEID Working Papers 04-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Alfranseder, Emanuel, 2015. "Does the financial crisis affect distressed or constrained firms more heavily?," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2015/4, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    10. Tuysuz, Sukriye, 2007. "The asymmetric impact of macroeconomic announcements on U.S. Government bond rate level and volatility," MPRA Paper 5381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chung-Hua Shen & Shyh-Wei Chen & Chien-Fu Chen, 2010. "The dual characteristics of closed-end country funds: the role of risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1003-1013.
    12. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    13. Shyh‐Wei Chen & Chung‐Hua Shen, 2004. "Price Common Volatility or Volume Common Volatility? Evidence from Taiwan's Exchange Rate and Stock Markets," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 185-211, June.
    14. Keiler, Sebastian & Eder, Armin, 2013. "CDS spreads and systemic risk: A spatial econometric approach," Discussion Papers 01/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Jarl G. Kallberg & Paolo Pasquariello, 2005. "An Examination of the Asian Crisis: Regime Shifts in Currency and Equity Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 169-212, January.
    16. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paladino, Giovanna, 2006. "Volatility co-movements between emerging sovereign bonds: Is there segmentation between geographical areas?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 245-263, March.
    17. Masahiro Inoguchi, 2007. "Influence of ADB Bond Issues and US Bonds on Asian Government Bonds," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 387-404, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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