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Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Chudozie Okongwu

Abstract

The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to U.S. levels, despite capital market liberalization and a resurgence of portfolio capital inflows during the second half of this sample period. Related questions are whether portfolio capital flows are strong enough to equalize expected returns between these 'emerging markets' and the U.S., and whether there is any scope left for the authorities to sterilize inflows. The conclusion of the study is that the largest single component of the gap in interest rates is expectations of depreciation of the local currencies against the dollar. Key to the analysis is the use of survey data on exchange rate forecasts by market participants. Indicative of integrated financial markets, we also find a big effect of U.S. interest rates on local interest rates and a highly significant degree of capital flow offset to monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey A. Frankel & Chudozie Okongwu, 1995. "Liberalized Portfolio Capital Inflows in Emerging Capital Markets: Sterilization, Expectations, and the Incompleteness of Interest Rate Convergence," NBER Working Papers 5156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5156
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Buch, Claudia & Hanschel, Elke, 2000. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: The Case of Slovenia," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 15, pages 602-628.
    2. Ferreira, Alex Luiz & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2007. "Does the real interest parity hypothesis hold? Evidence for developed and emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 364-382, April.
    3. Rashid, Abdul & Ling, Jeffrey, 2009. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rates: Evidence from ASEAN-5," MPRA Paper 22451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gerald Caprio & Michael Dooley & Danny Leipziger & Carl Walsh, 1996. "The lender of last resort function under a currency board: The case of Argentina," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 625-650, March.
    5. Tony Cavoli, 2005. "Sterilisation, Capital Mobility and Interest Rate Determination for East Asia," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2005-05, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    6. Remberto Rhenals Monterroso & Alejandro Torres García, 2007. "Volatilidad de los flujos de capital hacia los países en desarrollo: evidencia para América Latina, 1970-2002," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 67, pages 9-42, Julio-Dic.
    7. Chuhan, Punam & Claessens, Stijn & Mamingi, Nlandu, 1998. "Equity and bond flows to Latin America and Asia: the role of global and country factors," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 439-463, April.
    8. Hadiwibowo, Yuniarto & Komatsu, Masaaki, 2011. "Trilemma and macroeconomic policies under different financial structures in Indonesia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 302-310, August.
    9. Bordo, Michael D. & Rockoff, Hugh, 1996. "The Gold Standard as a “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval”," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 56(2), pages 389-428, June.
    10. George Furstenberg, 1998. "From Worldwide Capital Mobility to International Financial Integration: A Review Essay," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 53-84, January.
    11. James Dean, 1996. "Recent capital flows to Asia Pacific countries: Trade‐offs and dilemmas," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 287-317.
    12. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    13. Lapp, Susanne, 1996. "The Feldstein-Horioka paradox: A selective survey of the literature," Kiel Working Papers 752, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Indrani Chakraborty, 2016. "Global Financial Crisis, Capital Inflows and Policy Trilemma: An Analysis of the Indian Experience," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 5(1), pages 7-27, June.
    15. Celasun, Oya & Denizer, Cevdet & Dong He, 1999. "Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2141, The World Bank.
    16. Hasan Hüseyin YILDIRIM & Bahadır İLDOKUZ, 2018. "Korumasız Faiz Parite Kuramı ve 2005-2014 Dönemi Portföy Yatırımlarını Türkiye’ye Çeken Finansal Faktörlerin Tespiti," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 14(29), pages 247-268, December.
    17. Willett, Thomas D. & Keil, Manfred W. & Ahn, Young Seok, 2002. "Capital mobility for developing countries may not be so high," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 421-434, August.
    18. Hashimoto, Yuko, 2003. "An empirical test of likelihood and timing of speculative attacks: the case of Malaysia and Singapore," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-259, April.

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