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A Simple Model of Useless Speculation

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  • Murray C. Kemp
  • Hans-Werner Sinn

Abstract

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a pure exchange economy with stochastic endowment in which speculation is profitable and stabilizes prices, but is useless from a welfare point of view. Reconciling the Siegel paradox with the theory of incomplete markets we show that banning speculation by closing the forward exchange market may increase social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Murray C. Kemp & Hans-Werner Sinn, 1990. "A Simple Model of Useless Speculation," NBER Working Papers 3513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeremy J. Siegel, 1972. "Risk, Interest Rates and the Forward Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(2), pages 303-309.
    2. J. Huston McCulloch, 1975. "Operational Aspects of the Siegel Paradox," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 89(1), pages 170-172.
    3. Hart, Oliver D., 1975. "On the optimality of equilibrium when the market structure is incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 418-443, December.
    4. Paul R. Krugman, 1981. "Consumption Preferences, Asset Demands, and Distribution Effects in International Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 0651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Don E. Roper, 1975. "The Role of Expected Value Analysis for Speculative Decisions in the Forward Currency Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 89(1), pages 157-169.
    6. Frederick V. Waugh, 1944. "Does the Consumer Benefit from Price Instability?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 58(4), pages 602-614.
    7. Paul A. Samuelson, 1972. "The Consumer Does Benefit from Feasible Price Stability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 86(3), pages 476-493.
    8. Hal R. Varian, 1989. "Measuring The Deadweight Costs Of Dup And Rent Seeking Activities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 81-95, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marielle de Jong, 2011. "An adequate measure for exchange rate returns," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(2), pages 85-93, June.

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