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LASH risk and Interest Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro
  • Saleem A. Bahaj
  • Robert Czech
  • Jonathon Hazell
  • Ioana Neamtu

Abstract

This paper studies a form of liquidity risk that we call ‘Liquidity After Solvency Hedging’ or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against solvency risk, using strategies that require liquidity when the solvency of the institution improves. We focus on LASH risk relating to interest rate movements. Our framework implies that institutions with longer-duration liabilities than assets—e.g. pension funds and insurers—take more LASH risk as interest rates fall. Using UK regulatory data from 2019-22 on the universe of sterling repo and swap transactions, we measure, in real time and at the institution level, LASH risk for the non-bank sector. We find that at the peak level of LASH risk, a 100bps increase in interest rates would have led to liquidity needs close to the cash holdings of the pension fund and insurance sector. Using a cross-sectional identification strategy, we find that low interest rates caused increases in LASH risk. We then find that the pre-crisis LASH risk of non-banks predicts their bond sales during the 2022 UK bond market crisis, contributing to the yield spike in the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Saleem A. Bahaj & Robert Czech & Jonathon Hazell & Ioana Neamtu, 2024. "LASH risk and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 33241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maximilian Konradt, 2023. "Do pension funds reach for yield? Evidence from a new database," IHEID Working Papers 01-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    3. Ms. Ruo Chen & Esti Kemp, 2023. "Putting Out the NBFIRE: Lessons from the UK's Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2023/210, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Yiming Ma & Kairong Xiao & Yao Zeng, 2022. "Mutual Fund Liquidity Transformation and Reverse Flight to Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(10), pages 4674-4711.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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