IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/prg/jnlpep/v2024y2024i2id859p187-219.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-return Portfolio Level Trade-off for Czech Banks

Author

Listed:
  • Pavel Jankulár

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the risk-return trade-off for a sample of Czech banks over the period 2002-2022 by analysing the relationship between the bank risk and risk-adjusted returns. I find evidence of a significant negative association between the regulatory risk measure and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that the risk-return trade-off does not hold. Specifically, a 100 bps increase in the risk is associated with about a 7 bps decrease in the return on risk-adjusted assets (RORWA) and an 11 bps decrease in the risk-adjusted net interest margin (rNIM) in the short run. The long-run effect is about double for RORWA and almost triple for rNIM. I also find evidence that during the period of low interest rates, the effect for RORWA was about a half smaller, albeit still negative. On the contrary, when non-regulatory measures of risk or risk-adjusted profitability are used, the risk-return trade-off seems to hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Jankulár, 2024. "Risk-return Portfolio Level Trade-off for Czech Banks," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(2), pages 187-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2024:y:2024:i:2:id:859:p:187-219
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.859
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.859.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://pep.vse.cz/doi/10.18267/j.pep.859.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.18267/j.pep.859?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2022. "Regulatory Stress Tests and Bank Responses: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Dynamic Settings," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 1-49, June.
    2. Simona Malovana & Dominika Kolcunova & Vaclav Broz, 2017. "Does Monetary Policy Influence Banks' Perception of Risks?," Working Papers 2017/9, Czech National Bank.
    3. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Delis, Matthaios D., 2008. "Bank-specific, industry-specific and macroeconomic determinants of bank profitability," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 121-136, April.
    4. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fazio, Dimas M. & de O. Paiva, Karine C. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2016. "Financial stability and bank supervision," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 322-327.
    5. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    6. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    7. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    8. Sophia Döme & Stefan Kerbl, 2017. "Comparability of Basel risk weights in the EU banking sector," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 34, pages 68-89.
    9. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    10. Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Martinez-Miera & Rafael Repullo, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Macroprudential Policy, and Financial Stability," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 809-832, August.
    2. Malovaná, Simona & Kolcunová, Dominika & Brož, Václav, 2019. "Does monetary policy influence banks’ risk weights under the internal ratings-based approach?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 1-1.
    3. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    4. Whelsy Boungou, 2019. "Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking," Working Papers hal-03456106, HAL.
    5. J.A. Bikker & Tobias M. Vervliet, 2017. "Bank Profitability and Risk-Taking under Low Interest Rates," Working Papers 17-10, Utrecht School of Economics.
    6. Altavilla, Carlo & Boucinha, Miguel & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33(96), pages 531-586.
    7. Lahav, Yaron & Benzion, Uri, 2022. "What happens to investment choices when interest rates change? An experimental study," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 471-481.
    8. Wang, Ling, 2023. "Central bank asset purchases, banks’ risky security holdings and profitability: Macro and micro evidence from Japan and the U.S," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 347-364.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2015. "An analysis of involuntary excess reserves, monetary policy and risk-taking behaviour of Chinese Banks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-72.
    11. Mikel Bedayo & Gabriel Jiménez & José-Luis Peydró & Raquel Vegas, 2020. "Screening and Loan Origination Time: Lending Standards, Loan Defaults and Bank Failures," Working Papers 1215, Barcelona School of Economics.
    12. Wang, Li & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schröder, Michael & Xu, Xian, 2019. "Politicians’ promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-94.
    13. Simona Malovaná & Dominika Ehrenbergerová, 2022. "The effect of higher capital requirements on bank lending: the capital surplus matters," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 793-832, August.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher Palmer, 2016. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 22638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Benjamin M Tabak & Dimas M Fazio & Regis A Ely & Joao M. T. Amaral & Daniel O Cajueiro, 2017. "The effects of capital buffers on profitability: An empirical study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1468-1473.
    17. G. Peersman & W. Wagner, 2014. "Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 14/874, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Lamar Crombach & Frank Bohn, 2024. "Uninformed voters with (im)precise expectations: Explaining political budget cycle puzzles," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 275-311, March.
    19. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 116-140.
    20. Peersman, G. & Wagner, W.B., 2014. "Shocks to Bank Lending, Risk-Taking, Securitization, and Their Role for U.S. Business Cycle Fluctuations," Other publications TiSEM 59380ba3-4ac2-48ca-8e1e-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Kabundi, Alain & De Simone, Francisco Nadal, 2020. "Monetary policy and systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 736-758.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank profitability; bank risk; risk-return trade-off; RORWA; RAROC; dynamic panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2024:y:2024:i:2:id:859:p:187-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Stanislav Vojir (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/uevsecz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.