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Risk-return Portfolio Level Trade-off for Czech Banks

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  • Pavel Jankulár

Abstract

This paper examines the validity of the risk-return trade-off for a sample of Czech banks over the period 2002-2022 by analysing the relationship between the bank risk and risk-adjusted returns. I find evidence of a significant negative association between the regulatory risk measure and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that the risk-return trade-off does not hold. Specifically, a 100 bps increase in the risk is associated with about a 7 bps decrease in the return on risk-adjusted assets (RORWA) and an 11 bps decrease in the risk-adjusted net interest margin (rNIM) in the short run. The long-run effect is about double for RORWA and almost triple for rNIM. I also find evidence that during the period of low interest rates, the effect for RORWA was about a half smaller, albeit still negative. On the contrary, when non-regulatory measures of risk or risk-adjusted profitability are used, the risk-return trade-off seems to hold.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel Jankulár, 2024. "Risk-return Portfolio Level Trade-off for Czech Banks," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2024(2), pages 187-219.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2024:y:2024:i:2:id:859:p:187-219
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.859
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Karel Janda & Oleg Kravtsov, 2022. "Regulatory Stress Tests and Bank Responses: Heterogeneous Treatment Effect in Dynamic Settings," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(2), pages 1-49, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank profitability; bank risk; risk-return trade-off; RORWA; RAROC; dynamic panel regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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