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What about Japan?

Author

Listed:
  • Yi-Li Chien
  • Harold L. Cole
  • Hanno Lustig

Abstract

As a result of the BoJ’s large-scale asset purchases, the consolidated Japanese government borrows mostly at the floating rate from households and invests in longer-duration risky assets to earn an extra 3% of GDP. We quantify the impact of Japan’s low-rate policies on its government and households. Because of the duration mismatch on the government balance sheet, the government’s fiscal space expands when real rates decline, allowing the government to keep its promises to older Japanese households. A typical younger Japanese household does not have enough duration in its portfolio to continue to finance its spending plan and will be worse off. Low-rate policies tax younger, poorer and less financially sophisticated households.

Suggested Citation

  • Yi-Li Chien & Harold L. Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2023. "What about Japan?," NBER Working Papers 31850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31850
    Note: AP EFG IFM ME PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2022. "Measuring US Fiscal Capacity Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 157-229.
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    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2021. "A Goldilocks Theory of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2021-37, Princeton University. Economics Department..
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General

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