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Measuring US Fiscal Capacity Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Zhengyang Jiang

    (Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management)

  • Hanno Lustig

    (Stanford Graduate School of Business)

  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    (Columbia Business School)

  • Mindy Z. Xiaolan

    (University of Texas at Austin McCombs School of Business)

Abstract

We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure the projected fiscal capacity of the US federal government. We apply our valuation method to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections for the US federal government’s primary deficits between 2022 and 2052 and projected debt outstanding in 2052. The discount rate for projected cash flows and future debt must include a GDP or market risk premium in recognition of the risk associated with future surpluses. Despite current low interest rates, we find that US fiscal capacity is more limited than commonly thought. Because of the back-loading of projected primary surpluses, the duration of the surplus claim far exceeds the duration of the outstanding Treasury portfolio. This duration mismatch exposes the government to the risk of rising interest rates, which would trigger the need for higher tax revenue or lower spending. Reducing this risk by front-loading primary surpluses requires a major fiscal adjustment.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2022. "Measuring US Fiscal Capacity Using Discounted Cash Flow Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 53(2 (Fall)), pages 157-229.
    • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:53:y:2022:i:2022-02:p:157-229
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    Cited by:

    1. YiLi Chien & Harold L. Cole & Hanno Lustig, 2023. "What about Japan?," Working Papers 2023-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 12 Jul 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; fiscal policy; taxation; deficit projections; convenience yields;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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