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Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Ganong
  • Fiona E. Greig
  • Pascal J. Noel
  • Daniel M. Sullivan
  • Joseph S. Vavra

Abstract

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics— during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Ganong & Fiona E. Greig & Pascal J. Noel & Daniel M. Sullivan & Joseph S. Vavra, 2022. "Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 30315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30315
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jonas Kolsrud & Camille Landais & Peter Nilsson & Johannes Spinnewijn, 2018. "The Optimal Timing of Unemployment Benefits: Theory and Evidence from Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(4-5), pages 985-1033, April.
    2. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2012. "The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over 20 Years," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 701-752.
    3. Johannes F. Schmieder† & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2011. "The Effects Of Extended Unemployment Insurance Over The Business Cycle: Evidence From Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-063, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andre, Jennifer & Braga, Breno & Martinchek, Kassandra & McKernan, Signe-Mary, 2024. "The effects of state utility shutoff moratoria on credit delinquencies during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    2. Robert G. Valletta & Mary Yilma, 2024. "Enhanced Unemployment Insurance Benefits in the United States during COVID-19: Equity and Efficiency," Working Paper Series 2024-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Dmitriy Sergeyev & Chen Lian & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2023. "The Economics of Financial Stress," NBER Working Papers 31285, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ananat, Elizabeth & Glasner, Benjamin & Hamilton, Christal & Parolin, Zachary & Pignatti, Clemente, 2024. "Effects of the expanded Child Tax Credit on employment outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    5. David Autor & Arindrajit Dube & Annie McGrew, 2023. "The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 31010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Harry J. Holzer & Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2024. "Did pandemic unemployment benefits increase unemployment? Evidence from early state‐level expirations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 24-38, January.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E71 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on the Macro Economy
    • G5 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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