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Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle

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  • Zhengyang Jiang
  • Arvind Krishnamurthy
  • Hanno Lustig

Abstract

We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy. The global financial cycle is a dollar cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengyang Jiang & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Hanno Lustig, 2020. "Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 27682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27682
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles W. Calomiris & Harry Mamaysky, 2019. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Returns: Time-Varying Risk Regimes," NBER Working Papers 25714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2023. "Institutional investors, the dollar, and U.S. credit conditions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 198-220.
    3. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    5. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-55, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Sergio Florez-Orrego, 2021. "Money Matters: Global banks, safe assets and monetary autonomy," Documentos CEDE 19153, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Real Output and Cross-Currency Basis Swap Spreads: Evidence from the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2022. "Dominant currency debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 571-589.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2022. "Denmark: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2022/170, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ostry, D. A., 2023. "Tails of Foreign Exchange-at-Risk (FEaR)," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Dr. Thomas Nitschka & Diego M. Hager, 2022. "Responses of Swiss bond yields and stock prices to ECB policy surprises," Working Papers 2022-08, Swiss National Bank.
    13. Maggiori, Matteo, 2021. "International Macroeconomics With Imperfect Financial Markets," SocArXiv z8g6r, Center for Open Science.
    14. Hager, Diego & Nitschka, Thomas, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 and other Crises on the Responses of Swiss Bond Yields and Stock Prices to ECB Policy Surprises," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264018, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Czech, Robert & Della Corte, Pasquale & Huang, Shiyang & Wang, Tianyu, 2022. "FX option volume," Bank of England working papers 964, Bank of England.
    16. Fernanda Gonçalves & Giuliano Ferreira & Alex Ferreira & Pedro Scatimburgo, 2022. "Currency returns and systematic risk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(6), pages 609-647, December.
    17. Jiang, Zhengyang, 2021. "US Fiscal cycle and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 91-106.
    18. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    20. Cong, Lin William & Mayer, Simon, 2022. "The Coming Battle of Digital Currencies," Applied Economics and Policy Working Paper Series 320020, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    21. Maurer, Tim D. & Nitschka, Thomas, 2023. "Stock market evidence on the international transmission channels of US monetary policy surprises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    22. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    23. Jiang, Zhengyang & Richmond, Robert J., 2023. "Origins of international factor structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 1-26.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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