IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/27668.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data

Author

Listed:
  • Michael R. Haines
  • J. David Hacker
  • Matthew S. Jaremski

Abstract

The U.S. fertility transition in the nineteenth century is unusual. Not only did it start from a very high fertility level and very early in the nation’s development, but it also took place long before the nation’s mortality transition, industrialization, and urbanization. This paper assembles new county-level, household-level, and individual-level data, including new complete-count IPUMS microdata databases of the 1830-1880 censuses, to evaluate different theories for the nineteenth-century American fertility transition. We construct cross-sectional models of net fertility for currently-married white couples in census years 1830-1880 and test the results with subset of couples linked between the 1850-1860 and 1860-1870 censuses. We find evidence of marital fertility control consistent with hypotheses as early as 1830. The results indicate support for several different but complementary theories of the early U.S. fertility decline, including the land availability, conventional structuralist, ideational, child demand/quality-quantity trade-off, and life-cycle savings theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael R. Haines & J. David Hacker & Matthew S. Jaremski, 2020. "Early Fertility Decline in the United States: Tests of Alternative Hypotheses using New Complete-Count Census Microdata and Enhanced County-Level Data," NBER Working Papers 27668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27668
    Note: DAE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w27668.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Dribe & J. David Hacker & Francesco Scalone, 2014. "The impact of socio-economic status on net fertility during the historical fertility decline: A comparative analysis of Canada, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and the USA," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(2), pages 135-149, July.
    2. Thomas N. Maloney & Heidi Hanson & Ken Smith, 2014. "Occupation and fertility on the frontier," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(29), pages 853-886.
    3. Sascha Becker & Francesco Cinnirella & Ludger Woessmann, 2010. "The trade-off between fertility and education: evidence from before the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 177-204, September.
    4. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    5. Easterlin, Richard A., 1976. "Population Change and Farm Settlement in the Northern United States," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 45-75, March.
    6. Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1.
    7. Leet, Don R., 1976. "The Determinants of the Fertility Transition in Antebellum Ohio," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 359-378, June.
    8. Thomas N. Maloney & Heidi Hanson & Ken R. Smith, 2013. "Occupation and Fertility on the Frontier: Evidence from the State of Utah," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2013_2, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    9. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, December.
    10. Martin Dribe & Michel Oris & Lucia Pozzi, 2014. "Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(7), pages 161-182.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, D. Mark & Charles, Kerwin Kofi & Rees, Daniel I. & Wang, Tianyi, 2021. "Water purification efforts and the black‐white infant mortality gap, 1906–1938," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Guillaume Blanc, 2024. "Demographic Transitions, Rural Flight, and Intergenerational Persistence: Evidence From Crowdsourced Genealogies," Working Papers hal-02922398, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tommy Bengtsson & Martin Dribe, 2014. "The historical fertility transition at the micro level," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(17), pages 493-534.
    2. J. David Hacker, 2016. "Ready, Willing, and Able? Impediments to the Onset of Marital Fertility Decline in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(6), pages 1657-1692, December.
    3. Carol H. Shiue, 2017. "Human capital and fertility in Chinese clans before modern growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 351-396, December.
    4. Martin Dribe & Michel Oris & Lucia Pozzi, 2014. "Socioeconomic status and fertility before, during, and after the demographic transition: An introduction," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(7), pages 161-182.
    5. Alberto Basso & David Cuberes, 2013. "Fertility and Financial Development: Evidence from U.S. Counties in the 19th Century," Working Papers 2013011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    6. Timothy W. Guinnane, 2011. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 589-614, September.
    7. Philipp Ager & Benedikt Herz & Markus Brueckner, 2020. "Structural Change and the Fertility Transition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 806-822, October.
    8. Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte, 2017. "The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(42), pages 1255-1298.
    9. Kubitza, Christoph & Gehrke, Esther, 2018. "Why does a labor-saving technology decrease fertility rates? Evidence from the oil palm boom in Indonesia," EFForTS Discussion Paper Series 22, University of Goettingen, Collaborative Research Centre 990 "EFForTS, Ecological and Socioeconomic Functions of Tropical Lowland Rainforest Transformation Systems (Sumatra, Indonesia)".
    10. Dimico, Arcangelo, 2024. "The Effect of Abortion Policies on Fertility and Human Capital in Sub-Saharan Africa," QBS Working Paper Series 2024/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    11. David Cuberes & Alberto Basso, 2012. "Human Capital, Culture and the Onset of the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 2012024, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    12. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    13. Rosella Rettaroli & Alessandra Samoggia & Francesco Scalone, 2017. "Does socioeconomic status matter? The fertility transition in a northern Italian village (marriage cohorts 1900‒1940)," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(15), pages 455-492.
    14. Sebastian Klüsener & Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2019. "Spatial and Social Distance at the Onset of the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1880–1900," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 169-199, February.
    15. Alberto Basso & David Cuberes Vilalta, 2011. "Institutions, culture and the onset of the demographic transition," Working Papers. Serie AD 2011-13, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    16. Ager, Philipp & Brueckner, Markus & Herz, Benedikt, 2017. "Structural Change and the Fertility Transition in the American South," Discussion Papers on Economics 6/2017, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    17. Sascha O. Becker & Francesco Cinnirella & Ludger Woessmann, 2013. "Does women's education affect fertility? Evidence from pre-demographic transition Prussia," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(1), pages 24-44, February.
    18. Alberto Basso, 2015. "Does Democracy Foster the Fertility Transition?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 459-474, November.
    19. Johan Junkka, 2018. "Voluntary Associations and Net Fertility During the Swedish Demographic Transition," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 819-848, December.
    20. Hannaliis Jaadla & Alice Reid & Eilidh Garrett & Kevin Schürer & Joseph Day, 2020. "Revisiting the Fertility Transition in England and Wales: The Role of Social Class and Migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(4), pages 1543-1569, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N31 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27668. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.