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Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic

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Listed:
  • Dhaval M. Dave
  • Andrew I. Friedson
  • Kyutaro Matsuzawa
  • Joseph J. Sabia
  • Samuel Safford

Abstract

Sparked by the killing of George Floyd in police custody, the 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests brought a new wave of attention to the issue of inequality within criminal justice. However, some policymakers warned that such protests should be curtailed due to public health risks of infectious disease contagion. The current study finds that this epidemiological argument rests on an incorrect counterfactual that ignores economic incentives for risk-avoiding behaviors. We use newly collected data on BLM protests and anonymized cell phone data from SafeGraph, Inc. to estimate the impacts of BLM protests on (i) stay-at-home behavior, and (ii) foot-traffic to restaurants/bars, retail establishments, and business service locations. Event-study analyses provide strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased following protest onset, consistent with the hypothesis that non-protesters shifted their activity in response to the perceived heightened risk of contagion and protest-related violence. Moreover, we find that the types of activities that were averted by BLM protests were potentially riskier for disease spread than outdoor civil rights protests: restaurant and bar-going and retail shopping. These risk-avoiding responses to protests, coupled with mask-wearing by protesters, explain why BLM protests did not reignite community-level COVID-19 growth. Together, our findings highlight the pitfalls of ignoring general equilibrium effects in assessing the net economic impacts of civil rights protests.

Suggested Citation

  • Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2020. "Black Lives Matter Protests and Risk Avoidance: The Case of Civil Unrest During a Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 27408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27408
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Are the Effects of Adoption and Termination of Shelter-in-Place Orders Symmetric? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 27322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dave, Dhaval M. & Friedson, Andrew I. & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & McNichols, Drew & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Did the Wisconsin Supreme Court Restart a COVID-19 Epidemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 13314, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Dhaval Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2021. "When Do Shelter‐In‐Place Orders Fight Covid‐19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States And Adoption Time," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 29-52, January.
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    7. Dhaval M. Dave & Andrew I. Friedson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia & Samuel Safford, 2020. "Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-in-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth," NBER Working Papers 27229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrew I. Friedson & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia & Dhaval Dave, 2020. "Did California’s Shelter-in-Place Order Work? Early Coronavirus-Related Public Health Effects," NBER Working Papers 26992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Janke, Katharina & Propper, Carol & Shields, Michael A., 2016. "Assaults, murders and walkers: The impact of violent crime on physical activity," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 34-49.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2021. "A poorly understood disease? The impact of COVID-19 on the income gradient in mortality over the course of the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Michele Battisti & Ilpo Kauppinen & Britta Rude, 2022. "Twitter and Crime: The Effect of Social Movements on GenderBased Violence," ifo Working Paper Series 381, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2023. "Mass gatherings contributed to early COVID‐19 mortality: Evidence from US sports," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(3), pages 471-488, July.
    4. Ján Palguta & Levínský, René & Škoda, Samuel, 2021. "Do Elections Accelerate the COVID-19 Pandemic? Evidence from a Natural Experiment," GLO Discussion Paper Series 891, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Brandily, Paul & Brébion, Clément & Briole, Simon & Khoury, Laura, 2020. "A Poorly Understood Disease? The Unequal Distribution of Excess Mortality Due to COVID-19 Across French Municipalities," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/2020, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    6. Dhaval Dave & Drew McNichols & Joseph J. Sabia, 2022. "Political violence, risk aversion, and population health: Evidence from the US Capitol riot," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1345-1384, October.
    7. Sen, Anindya & Baker, John David & Zhang, Qihuang & Agarwal, Rishav Raj & Lam, Jean-Paul, 2023. "Do more stringent policies reduce daily COVID-19 case counts? Evidence from Canadian provinces," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 225-242.
    8. Bouke Klein Teeselink & Georgios Melios, 2022. "Weather to Protest: The Effect of Black Lives Matter Protests on the 2020 Presidential Election," Working Papers CEB 22-007, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Eleanor J. Murray, 2020. "Epidemiology's Time of Need: COVID-19 Calls for Epidemic-Related Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 105-120, Fall.
    10. Alexander Ahammer & Martin Halla & Mario Lackner, 2020. "Mass Gatherings Contributed to Early COVID-19 Mortality: Evidence from US Sports," Economics working papers 2020-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    11. Charles Courtemanche & Joseph Garuccio & Anh Le & Joshua Pinkston & Aaron Yelowitz, 2021. "Chance elections, social distancing restrictions, and KENTUCKY’s early COVID-19 experience," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-19, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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