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Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry

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  • Miriam Breitenstein
  • Carl-Philipp Anke
  • Duc Khuong Nguyen
  • Thomas Walther

Abstract

We assess the value of stranded coal-fired power plants in Germany in the light of the critical decision to phase them out by 2038. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the scenarios under consideration (slow decommissioning at the end of the technical lifetime in 2061, the highly probable phase-out by 2038, and an accelerated phase-out by 2030) are additionally assigned distributions to display the uncertainty of future developments. The results show an overall stranded asset value of €2.6 billion given the phase-out by 2038 and an additional €11.6 billion if the phase-out is brought forward by 8 years. This study also describes the impacts of carbon pricing and the feed-in from renewable energy sources on the merit order and eventually the deterioration in economic conditions for hard coal and lignite power plants. Lastly, we discuss the immediate concerns for the share prices of the affected companies and help to close the research gap regarding stranded physical and financial assets.

Suggested Citation

  • Miriam Breitenstein & Carl-Philipp Anke & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2022. "Stranded Asset Risk and Political Uncertainty: The Impact of the Coal Phase-Out on the German Coal Industry," The Energy Journal, , vol. 43(5), pages 27-50, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:43:y:2022:i:5:p:27-50
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.5.mbre
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    Cited by:

    1. Waldemar Karpa & Antonio Grginović, 2021. "(Not So) Stranded: The Case of Coal in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Miriam Breitenstein & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thomas Walther, 2021. "Environmental Hazards And Risk Management In The Financial Sector: A Systematic Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 512-538, April.
    3. Ma, Huan & Sun, Qinghan & Chen, Lei & Chen, Qun & Zhao, Tian & He, Kelun & Xu, Fei & Min, Yong & Wang, Shunjiang & Zhou, Guiping, 2023. "Cogeneration transition for energy system decarbonization: From basic to flexible and complementary multi-energy sources," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coal Phase-Out; Energy Transition; Germany; Stranded Assets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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