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In Search of Reforms for Growth: New Stylized Facts on Policy and Growth Outcomes

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  • William Easterly

Abstract

The lack of growth response to “Washington Consensus” policy reforms in the 1980s and 1990s led to widespread doubts about the value of such reforms. This paper updates these stylized facts by analyzing moderate to extreme levels of inflation, black market premiums, currency overvaluation, negative real interest rates and abnormally low trade shares to GDP. It finds three new stylized facts: (1) policy outcomes worldwide have improved a lot since the 1990s, (2) improvements in policy outcomes and improvements in growth across countries are correlated with each other (3) growth has been good after reform in Africa and Latin America, in contrast to the “lost decades” of the 80s and 90s. This paper makes no claims about causality. However, if the old stylized facts on disappointing growth accompanying reforms led to doubts about economic reforms, new stylized facts should lead to some positive updating of such beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • William Easterly, 2019. "In Search of Reforms for Growth: New Stylized Facts on Policy and Growth Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 26318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26318
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    2. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
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    11. Robert Gramacy & Samuel W. Malone & Enrique Ter Horst, 2014. "Exchange Rate Fundamentals, Forecasting, And Speculation: Bayesian Models In Black Markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 22-41, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2021. "Public policies and the art of catching up: matching the historical evidence with a multicountry agent-based model [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(4), pages 1011-1036.
    2. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3s3jn8tt5h9mab7fo128gecbhj is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Fernanda Andrade de Xavier & Aparna P. Lolayekar & Pranab Mukhopadhyay, 2021. "Decentralization and Its Impact on Growth in India," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 16(1), pages 130-151, April.
    5. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03242369, HAL.
    6. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 337-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Sundar Ponnusamy, 2022. "Export specialization, trade liberalization and economic growth: a synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 637-669, August.
    8. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    9. Ahlerup, Pelle & Olsson, Ola, 2023. "Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1," Working Papers in Economics 834, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Vlad Tarko, 2021. "Simple rules for a more inclusive economy," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 229-249, December.
    11. Grier, Kevin B. & Grier, Robin M., 2021. "The Washington consensus works: Causal effects of reform, 1970-2015," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 59-72.
    12. Tullio Gregori & Marco Giansoldati, 2023. "Do current and capital account liberalizations affect economic growth in the long run?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 247-273, July.
    13. Simola, Heli, 2021. "Long-term challenges to Russian economic policy," BOFIT Policy Briefs 11/2021, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. Belinda Archibong & Brahima Coulibaly & Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, 2021. "Washington Consensus Reforms and Lessons for Economic Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 133-156, Summer.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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