Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1

In this report, we focus on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1, stipulating that countries should pursue real GDP per capita growth rates that are in accordance with their national circumstances and that total GDP should grow by more than seven percent a year in the least developed countries. We start by briefly discussing the background of this target and then review some of the existing research on economic growth across the world, starting with growth theory and its predictions concerning the convergence of growth rates and income levels in the short and long term. We also review the extensive empirical work on cross-country income and growth regressions that have accumulated during the last three decades, focusing on recent (pre-covid) and historical patterns regarding the fulfillment of the SDG 8.1 targets. We show that a growth rate in total GDP of seven percent per year has only been observed in about 10 percent of all available country-year observations over history. Growth rates exceeding seven percent were relatively frequent among poor countries during 2000-2009 but not during 2009-2019. Since 2000, the relatively high average growth rates among poor countries have implied that their income levels have steadily converged towards those of richer countries, although at a slow pace. This pattern is manifested in longer periods of sustained growth episodes in poor countries and can probably be explained by successful policy reforms. We also show that about a third of all countries managed to have positive economic growth during 2010-19 while at the same time decreasing their emissions of CO2 from production (decoupling). For poor and rich countries alike, the growth prospects post-covid and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are uncertain.