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The Mandarin Model of Growth

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  • Wei Xiong

Abstract

China's economic reforms over the past 40 years have led to a mixed economic structure with the government playing a key role in an increasingly market-driven economy. This paper expands a standard growth model of Barro (1990) to incorporate this structure, with a particular focus on including the agency problem between the central and local governments. To incentivize local governors, the central government has established an economic tournament, which generates not only intended incentives to develop local economies, à la Holmstrolm (1982), but also short-termist behaviors, à la Stein (1989). The latter channel helps to explain a series of challenges that confront the Chinese economy, such as overleverage through shadow banking and unreliable economic statistics.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xiong, 2018. "The Mandarin Model of Growth," NBER Working Papers 25296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25296
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    3. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    4. Anton Cheremukhin & Mikhail Golosov & Sergei Guriev & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2024. "The Political Development Cycle: The Right and the Left in People's Republic of China from 1953," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 1107-1139, April.
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    7. Mengting Ruan & Xiaolu Zhao, 2022. "Fiscal Pressure, Policy Choices and Regional Economic Disparity: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-13, September.
    8. Francesco D'Acunto & Michael Weber & Jin Xie & Michael Weber, 2019. "Punish One, Teach A Hundred: The Sobering Effect of Punishment on the Unpunished," CESifo Working Paper Series 7512, CESifo.
    9. Wei Chen & Xilu Chen & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2019. "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 25754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Zhu, Jun & Xu, Haokun & Zhang, Yue, 2022. "Local government debt and firm productivity: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Sha, Wenbiao, 2023. "The political impacts of land expropriation in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    12. Wang, Yabin & Wu, Sharon Xiaohui, 2023. "Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    13. Anna Sznajderska, 2021. "Should we recalculate the level of spillover effects if the alternative GDP measures for China are correct?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(5), pages 437-456.
    14. Chuantao Cui & Leona Shao-Zhi Li, 2024. "More but not better: Career incentives of local leaders and entrepreneurial entry in China," Working Papers 202417, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    15. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    16. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    17. Yunyi Hu & Haitao Yin & Jon J. Moon, 2022. "Environmental regulation and foreign investment: Evidence from China," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 862-883, November.
    18. Chen, Qianmiao & Huang, Qingyang & Liu, Chang & Wang, Peng, 2022. "Career incentives of local leaders and crisis response: A case study of COVID-19 lockdowns in China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Qu, Xi & Xu, Zhiwei & Yu, Jinxiang & Zhu, Jun, 2023. "Understanding local government debt in China: A regional competition perspective," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    20. Cong Yu & Linke Hou & Yuxia Lyu & Qi Zhang, 2022. "Political competition, spatial interactions, and default risk of local government debts in China," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 717-743, June.
    21. Yao, Xin & Huang, Ruting & Du, Kerui, 2019. "The impacts of market power on power grid efficiency: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 99-110.
    22. Danglun Luo & Congcong Liu & Lifan Wu, 2020. "Horizontal Networks and Economic Performance: Evidence from City Leaders in China," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1359-1373, July.
    23. Antoinette Schoar, 2019. "Comment on "Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics "," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2019, volume 34, pages 389-394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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