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Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies

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  • Chinn, Menzie
  • Frankel, Jeffrey

Abstract

The properties of exchange-rate forecasts are investigated, with a data set encompassing a broad cross section of currencies. Over the entire sample, expectations appear to be biased. This result is robust to the possibility of random measurement error in the survey measures. There appear to be statistically significant differences in the degree of bias in subgroupings of the data: the bias is lower for the high-inflation countries; the bias is greater for the major currencies studied in earlier papers; and the bias is also greater for the EMS currencies. Copyright 1994 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 1994. "Patterns in Exchange Rate Forecasts for Twenty-five Currencies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(4), pages 759-770, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:26:y:1994:i:4:p:759-70
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