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The Effects of Marijuana Liberalizations: Evidence from Monitoring the Future

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  • Angela K. Dills
  • Sietse Goffard
  • Jeffrey Miron

Abstract

By the end of 2016, 28 states had liberalized their marijuana laws: by decriminalizing possession, by legalizing for medical purposes, or by legalizing more broadly. More states are considering such policy changes even while supporters and opponents continue to debate their impacts. Yet evidence on these liberalizations remains scarce, in part due to data limitations. We use data from Monitoring the Future’s annual surveys of high school seniors to evaluate the impact of marijuana liberalizations on marijuana use, other substance use, alcohol consumption, attitudes surrounding substance use, youth health outcomes, crime rates, and traffic accidents. These data have several advantages over those used in prior analyses. We find that marijuana liberalizations have had minimal impact on the examined outcomes. Notably, many of the outcomes predicted by critics of liberalizations, such as increases in youth drug use and youth criminal behavior, have failed to materialize in the wake of marijuana liberalizations.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela K. Dills & Sietse Goffard & Jeffrey Miron, 2017. "The Effects of Marijuana Liberalizations: Evidence from Monitoring the Future," NBER Working Papers 23779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23779
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    1. D. Mark Anderson & Daniel I. Rees, 2014. "The Legalization of Recreational Marijuana: How Likely Is the Worst‐Case Scenario?," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 221-232, January.
    2. D. Mark Anderson & Benjamin Hansen & Daniel I. Rees, 2013. "Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 333-369.
    3. Rosalie L. Pacula & David Powell & Paul Heaton & Eric L. Sevigny, 2015. "Assessing the Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana Use: The Devil is in the Details," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 7-31, January.
    4. Joseph J. Sabia & Jeffrey Swigert & Timothy Young, 2017. "The Effect of Medical Marijuana Laws on Body Weight," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 6-34, January.
    5. MacCoun Robert & Pacula Rosalie Liccardo & Chriqui Jamie & Harris Katherine & Reuter Peter, 2009. "Do Citizens Know Whether Their State Has Decriminalized Marijuana? Assessing the Perceptual Component of Deterrence Theory," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 347-371, June.
    6. Rosalie Liccardo Pacula & David Powell & Paul Heaton & Eric L. Sevigny, 2013. "Assessing the Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana and Alcohol Use: The Devil is in the Details," NBER Working Papers 19302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. D. Mark Anderson & Kyutaro Matsuzawa & Joseph J. Sabia, 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," NBER Working Papers 26780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
    3. Zhang, Saijun & Lim, Younghee & Boyas, Javier F. & Burlaka, Viktor, 2020. "Family structure and youth illicit drug use, use disorder, and treatment services utilization," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Hollingsworth, Alex & Wing, Coady, 2020. "Tactics for design and inference in synthetic control studies: An applied example using high-dimensional data," SocArXiv fc9xt, Center for Open Science.
    5. Kalbfuss, Jörg & Odermatt, Reto & Stutzer, Alois, 2024. "Medical marijuana laws and mental health in the United States," Health Economics, Policy and Law, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 307-322, July.
    6. Hansen, Benjamin & Miller, Keaton & Weber, Caroline, 2020. "Federalism, partial prohibition, and cross-border sales: Evidence from recreational marijuana," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    7. Dragone, Davide & Prarolo, Giovanni & Vanin, Paolo & Zanella, Giulio, 2019. "Crime and the legalization of recreational marijuana," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 488-501.
    8. John Gardner & Bright Osei, 2022. "Recreational marijuana legalization and admission to the foster‐care system," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1311-1334, July.
    9. Anderson, D. Mark & Rees, Daniel I., 2021. "The Public Health Effects of Legalizing Marijuana," IZA Discussion Papers 14292, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Alex Hollingsworth & Coady Wing & Ashley C. Bradford, 2022. "Comparative Effects of Recreational and Medical Marijuana Laws on Drug Use among Adults and Adolescents," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 515-554.
    11. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2019. "Defeating Crime? An Economic Analysis of Cannabis Legalization Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 13814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Anderson, D. Mark & Matsuzawa, Kyutaro & Sabia, Joseph J., 2020. "Cigarette Taxes and Teen Marijuana Use," IZA Discussion Papers 12980, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Angela K. Dills & Sean E. Mulholland, 2018. "Ride‐Sharing, Fatal Crashes, and Crime," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(4), pages 965-991, April.

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    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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