IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/22144.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Lee J. Alston
  • Marcus André Melo
  • Bernardo Mueller
  • Carlos Pereira

Abstract

Critical transitions for a country are historical periods when the powerful organizations in a country shift from one set of beliefs about how institutions (the formal and informal rules of the game) will affect outcomes to a new set of beliefs. Critical transitions can lead a country toward more openness politically and economically or toward a more exclusionary society. Economic and political development is contextual; that is, there is no recipe. Periods of relative persistence are the norm with changes in institutions at the margin. We develop a framework consisting of several interconnected relatively unexplored concepts that we first define in a static context and then utilize to show how they produce a dynamic of institutional change or persistence. The key concepts include: windows of opportunity, beliefs, and leadership. Our major contribution is wedding the concepts of windows of opportunity, beliefs, and leadership to the dominant network, institutions, and economic and political outcomes to form a dynamic. We apply the framework illustratively to understand economic and political development in Argentina over the past 100 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee J. Alston & Marcus André Melo & Bernardo Mueller & Carlos Pereira, 2016. "A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions," NBER Working Papers 22144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22144
    Note: DAE DEV LE POL
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w22144.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Z. Aliber & Charles P. Kindleberger, 2015. "Manias, Panics, and Crashes," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-137-52574-1, October.
    2. McCloskey, Deirdre Nansen, 2006. "The Bourgeois Virtues," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226556635, December.
    3. Lee J. Alston & Bernardo Mueller, 2006. "Pork for Policy: Executive and Legislative Exchange in Brazil," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 87-114, April.
    4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    5. Gerardo della Paolera & Alan M. Taylor, 2001. "Straining at the Anchor: The Argentine Currency Board and the Search for Macroeconomic Stability, 1880-1935," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number paol01-1.
    6. Wallis, John Joseph, 2011. "Institutions, organizations, impersonality, and interests: The dynamics of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 48-64.
    7. Schofield,Norman, 2006. "Architects of Political Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521832021, January.
    8. Alston, Lee J. & Gallo, Andrés A., 2010. "Electoral fraud, the rise of Peron and demise of checks and balances in Argentina," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 179-197, April.
    9. North,Douglass C. & Wallis,John Joseph & Weingast,Barry R., 2013. "Violence and Social Orders," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107646995, September.
    10. Greif,Avner, 2006. "Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671347, September.
    11. Philippe Aghion, 2005. "Growth and Institutions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-18, March.
    12. Lee J. Alston & Marcus André Melo & Bernardo Mueller & Carlos Pereira, 2016. "Brazil in Transition: Beliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10745.
    13. Schofield,Norman, 2006. "Architects of Political Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521539722, January.
    14. Wallis, John Joseph, 2011. "Institutions, organizations, impersonality, and interests: The dynamics of institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(1-2), pages 48-64, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baxter Jamie, 2019. "Leadership, Law and Development," The Law and Development Review, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 119-158, January.
    2. Steven Webb, 2017. "Populism: A Threat to Democracy? Or a verification of it?," Journal of Contextual Economics (JCE) – Schmollers Jahrbuch, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 137(4), pages 401-420.
    3. John Wallis, 2015. "Rules, Organizations, and Governments," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 69-86, March.
    4. Iyigun, Murat & Rubin, Jared & Seror, Avner, 2021. "A theory of cultural revivals," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Brousseau, Eric & Garrouste, Pierre & Raynaud, Emmanuel, 2011. "Institutional changes: Alternative theories and consequences for institutional design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(1-2), pages 3-19, June.
    6. John Wallis, 2011. "Politics, Economics, and Violence: the Organization of Societies and Third-Party Enforcement," Working Papers 634, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
    7. Lee J. Alston & Marcus André Melo & Bernardo Mueller & Carlos Pereira, 2016. "Why Countries Transition? The Case of Brazil, 1964–2016," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(2), pages 197-224, June.
    8. Eric Hilt, 2016. "Corporation Law and the Shift toward Open Access in the Antebellum United States," NBER Chapters, in: Organizations, Civil Society, and the Roots of Development, pages 147-177, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. van Bavel, Bas, 2016. "The Invisible Hand?: How Market Economies have Emerged and Declined Since AD 500," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199608133.
    10. Desierto, Desiree & Koyama, Mark, 2024. "The Political Economy of Status Competition: Sumptuary Laws in Preindustrial Europe," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 479-516, June.
    11. Stephen Broadberry & John Wallis, 2017. "Growing, Shrinking and Long Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _154, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Enrico Spolaore, 2020. "Commanding Nature by Obeying Her: A Review Essay on Joel Mokyr's A Culture of Growth," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 777-792, September.
    13. ROUGIER Eric, 2015. ""The parts and the whole”: Unbundling and re-bundling institutional systems and their effect on economic development," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-12, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    14. Touré, Nouhoum, 2021. "Culture, institutions and the industrialization process," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 481-503.
    15. Langlois, Richard N., 2013. "Business groups and the natural state," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 14-26.
    16. Benito Arruñada, 2012. "Property as an economic concept: reconciling legal and economic conceptions of property rights in a Coasean framework," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 59(2), pages 121-144, July.
    17. Sen, Kunal, 2013. "The Political Dynamics of Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-86.
    18. Harris,Colin & Cai,Meina & Murtazashvili,Ilia & Murtazashvili,Jennifer Brick, 2020. "The Origins and Consequences of Property Rights," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108969055, January.
    19. Rubin, Amir & Rubin, Eran & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Editor home bias?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(6).
    20. Iyigun, Murat & Rubin, Jared & Seror, Avner, 2018. "A Theory of Conservative Revivals," IZA Discussion Papers 11954, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22144. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.