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The Effects of Test-based Retention on Student Outcomes over Time: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Florida

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Listed:
  • Guido Schwerdt
  • Martin R. West
  • Marcus A. Winters

Abstract

Many American states require that students lacking basic reading proficiency after third grade be retained and remediated. We exploit a discontinuity in retention probabilities under Florida's test-based promotion policy to study its effects on student outcomes through high school. We find large positive effects on achievement that fade out entirely when retained students are compared to their same-age peers, but remain substantial through grade 10 when compared to students in the same grade. Being retained in third grade due to missing the promotion standard increases students' grade point averages and leads them to take fewer remedial courses in high school but has no effect on their probability of graduating.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Schwerdt & Martin R. West & Marcus A. Winters, 2015. "The Effects of Test-based Retention on Student Outcomes over Time: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Florida," NBER Working Papers 21509, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21509
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elizabeth U. Cascio & Douglas O. Staiger, 2012. "Knowledge, Tests, and Fadeout in Educational Interventions," NBER Working Papers 18038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Schwerdt, Guido & West, Martin R. & Winters, Marcus A., 2017. "The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 154-169.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Mississippi improves — by failing students?
      by Joanne in Linking and Thinking on Education by Joanne Jacobs on 2019-12-10 18:45:12
    2. Parents: My child may need to repeat a grade
      by Joanne in Linking and Thinking on Education by Joanne Jacobs on 2021-05-25 16:45:51

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ron Diris, 2017. "Don't Hold Back? The Effect of Grade Retention on Student Achievement," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 12(3), pages 312-341, Summer.
    2. Javier Valbuena & Mauro Mediavilla & Álvaro Choi & María Gil, 2021. "Effects Of Grade Retention Policies: A Literature Review Of Empirical Studies Applying Causal Inference," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 408-451, April.
    3. Victoria Nevin Locke & P. Johnelle Sparks, 2019. "Who Gets Held Back? An Analysis of Grade Retention Using Stratified Frailty Models," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(5), pages 695-731, October.
    4. Cockx, Bart, 2013. "Youth Unemployment in Belgium: Diagnosis and Key Remedies," IZA Policy Papers 66, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Hugo Reis & Emilio Borghesan, 2022. "Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal," Working Papers w202220, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Ozkan Eren & Michael F. Lovenheim & H. Naci Mocan, 2022. "The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence from a Test-Based Promotion Policy," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(2), pages 361-395.
    7. Leighton, Margaret & Souza, Priscila & Straub, Stéphane, 2016. "Social Promotion in Primary School: Immediate and Cumulated Effects on Attainment," TSE Working Papers 16-649, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Patrizia Ordine & Giuseppe Rose, 2019. "Early entry, age-at-test, and schooling attainment: evidence from Italian primary schools," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(3), pages 761-784, October.
    9. David N. Figlio & Krzysztof Karbownik & Umut Özek, 2023. "Sibling Spillovers May Enhance the Efficacy of Targeted School Policies," NBER Working Papers 31406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Luke C. Miller & Daphna Bassok, 2019. "The Effects of Universal Preschool on Grade Retention," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 14(2), pages 149-177, Spring.
    11. Figlio, David & Özek, Umut, 2020. "An extra year to learn English? Early grade retention and the human capital development of English learners," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    12. Eren, Ozkan & Depew, Briggs & Barnes, Stephen, 2017. "Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 9-31.
    13. Bach, Maximilian, 2019. "Strategic grade retention," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-059, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    14. Schwerdt, Guido & West, Martin R. & Winters, Marcus A., 2017. "The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 154-169.
    15. Zhang, Shiying & Huang, Ao, 2022. "The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Kugler Franziska & Schwerdt Guido & Wößmann Ludger, 2014. "Ökonometrische Methoden zur Evaluierung kausaler Effekte der Wirtschaftspolitik," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 105-132, June.
    17. Gerry Redmond & Irene García-Moya & Carmen Moreno & Anna Mooney & Fiona Brooks, 2022. "Gender Differences in the Relationship between Pressure from Schoolwork and Health Complaints: a Three Country Study," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 15(3), pages 763-780, June.
    18. Katharina Rathmann & Katharina Loter & Theres Vockert, 2020. "Critical Events throughout the Educational Career: The Effect of Grade Retention and Repetition on School-Aged Children’s Well-Being," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-30, June.
    19. Tafreschi, Darjusch & Thiemann, Petra, 2016. "Doing it twice, getting it right? The effects of grade retention and course repetition in higher education," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 198-219.
    20. Servaas van der Berg & Gabrielle Wills & Rebecca Selkirk & Charles Adams & Chris van Wyk, 2019. "The cost of repetition in South Africa," Working Papers 13/2019, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    21. Amy Ellen Schwartz & Douglas Almond & Ajin Lee, 2016. "Retention Heterogeneity in New York City Schools," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 198, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    22. Solis, Alex, 2017. "The Effects of Grade Retention on Human Capital Accumulation," Working Paper Series 2017:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, revised 07 Dec 2017.

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    20. Bach, Maximilian, 2019. "Strategic grade retention," ZEW Discussion Papers 19-059, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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