IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21464.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War

Author

Listed:
  • Ali Hortaçsu
  • Chad Syverson

Abstract

We review major changes in the economics of the US retail sector over the past 15-20 years and discuss what these portend for the future evolution of retail. The sector has been shrinking in relative size over the long term, though this stopped around the onset of the Great Recession. Retail has experienced stronger-than-average productivity growth that has not been accompanied by commensurate wage growth. The main forces shaping the retail landscape in recent decades have been the expansions of two formats: e-commerce and warehouse clubs. While both formats have been the subject of study and discussion, we find evidence that warehouse clubs have had to this point a greater effect on retail than e-commerce has. This impact has been manifested in changes in the retail sector’s scale, concentration, dynamism, and urbanization. Thus while e-commerce will continue to expand and physical retail will further evolve in the coming years, the physical format is unlikely to meet its demise soon.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Hortaçsu & Chad Syverson, 2015. "The Ongoing Evolution of US Retail: A Format Tug-of-War," NBER Working Papers 21464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21464
    Note: IO PR
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21464.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald S. Jarmin & Shawn D. Klimek & Javier Miranda, 2009. "The Role of Retail Chains: National, Regional and Industry Results," NBER Chapters, in: Producer Dynamics: New Evidence from Micro Data, pages 237-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Paul B. Ellickson, 2015. "Adolescence and the Path to Maturity in Global Retail," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 113-134, Fall.
    3. Brianna Cardiff-Hicks & Francine Lafontaine & Kathryn Shaw, 2015. "Do Large Modern Retailers Pay Premium Wages?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(3), pages 633-665, May.
    4. Emek Basker, 2012. "Raising the Barcode Scanner: Technology and Productivity in the Retail Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Standards, Patents and Innovations, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Holmes, Thomas J, 2001. "Bar Codes Lead to Frequent Deliveries and Superstores," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 32(4), pages 708-725, Winter.
    6. Paul B. Ellickson & Stephanie Houghton & Christopher Timmins, 2013. "Estimating network economies in retail chains: a revealed preference approach," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(2), pages 169-193, June.
    7. Paul B. Ellickson, 2007. "Does Sutton apply to supermarkets?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(1), pages 43-59, March.
    8. Marianne Bertrand & Francis Kramarz, 2002. "Does Entry Regulation Hinder Job Creation? Evidence from the French Retail Industry," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1369-1413.
    9. Emek Basker, 2012. "Raising the Barcode Scanner: Technology and Productivity in the Retail Sector," NBER Chapters,in: Standards, Patents and Innovations National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Kenneth R. Troske, 1999. "Evidence On The Employer Size-Wage Premium From Worker-Establishment Matched Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 15-26, February.
    11. repec:bla:jindec:v:49:y:2001:i:4:p:501-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Erik Brynjolfsson & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Michael D. Smith, 2010. "Research Commentary --- Long Tails vs. Superstars: The Effect of Information Technology on Product Variety and Sales Concentration Patterns," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 736-747, December.
    13. Mark Doms & Ron Jarmin & Shawn Klimek, 2004. "Information technology investment and firm performance in US retail trade," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 595-613.
    14. Fiona Scott Morton & Florian Zettelmeyer & Jorge Silva‐Risso, 2001. "Internet Car Retailing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 501-519, December.
    15. Fiona Scott Morton & Florian Zettelmeyer & Jorge Silva-Risso, 2001. "Internet Car Retailing," NBER Chapters, in: E-commerce, pages 501-519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Panle Jia, 2008. "What Happens When Wal-Mart Comes to Town: An Empirical Analysis of the Discount Retailing Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1263-1316, November.
    17. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & C. J. Krizan, 2006. "Market Selection, Reallocation, and Restructuring in the U.S. Retail Trade Sector in the 1990s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 748-758, November.
    18. Peitz, Martin & Waldfogel, Joel, 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Digital Economy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195397840.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter Mayerhofer & Peter Huber & Dieter Pennerstorfer, 2017. "Handel und Einzelhandel im Wiener Beschäftigungssystem. Arbeitsmarktrelevanz, Arbeitsplatzcharakteristika, absehbare Herausforderungen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61951, March.
    2. Emek Basker, 2012. "Raising the Barcode Scanner: Technology and Productivity in the Retail Sector," NBER Chapters, in: Standards, Patents and Innovations, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Brianna Cardiff-Hicks & Francine Lafontaine & Kathryn Shaw, 2015. "Do Large Modern Retailers Pay Premium Wages?," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 68(3), pages 633-665, May.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & C. J. Krizan, 2010. "Mom-and-Pop Meet Big-Box: Complements or Substitutes?," NBER Chapters, in: Cities and Entrepreneurship, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Basker, Emek, 2011. "The Causes and Consequences of Wal-Mart’s Growth," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 5, pages 110-134.
    6. Janghee Cho & Hyunbae Chun & Yoonsoo Lee, 2023. "Productivity dynamics in the retail trade sector: the roles of large modern retailers and small entrants," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 291-313, January.
    7. Raffaella Sadun, 2015. "Does Planning Regulation Protect Independent Retailers?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(5), pages 983-1001, December.
    8. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2021. "Entry Regulations and Product Variety in Retail," CEPR Discussion Papers 15992, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Kosová, Renáta & Lafontaine, Francine, 2012. "Much ado about chains: A research agenda," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 303-308.
    10. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2015. "A dynamic analysis of entry regulations and productivity in retail trade," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 67-80.
    11. MacDonald, James M. & Dong, Xiao & Fuglie, Keith O., 2023. "Concentration and Competition in U.S. Agribusiness," Economic Information Bulletin 337566, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    12. Janghee Cho & Hyunbae Chun & Yoonsoo Lee, 2022. "Productivity Dynamics in the Retail Trade Sector: The Roles of Large Modern Retailers and Small Entrants," Working Papers 2202, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    13. Emek Basker & Shawn Klimek & Pham Hoang Van, 2012. "Supersize It: The Growth of Retail Chains and the Rise of the “Big‐Box” Store," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 541-582, September.
    14. Schivardi, Fabiano & Pozzi, Andrea, 2015. "Entry Regulation in Retail Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 10836, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Emek Basker & Timothy Simcoe, 2021. "Upstream, Downstream: Diffusion and Impacts of the Universal Product Code," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(4), pages 1252-1286.
    16. Florin Maican & Matilda Orth, 2017. "Productivity Dynamics and the Role of ‘Big-Box’ Entrants in Retailing," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 397-438, June.
    17. Nicholas Li, 2021. "Borders, varieties and distribution costs: Evidence from a US–Canada retail chain," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 949-985, November.
    18. Emek Basker, 2015. "Change at the Checkout: Tracing the Impact of a Process Innovation," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 339-370, June.
    19. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    20. Decker, Ryan A. & Haltiwanger, John & Jarmin, Ron S. & Miranda, Javier, 2016. "Where has all the skewness gone? The decline in high-growth (young) firms in the U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 4-23.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D4 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L81 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Retail and Wholesale Trade; e-Commerce

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21464. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.