IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/21125.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identification and Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Discrete Game

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Bajari
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Han Hong
  • Denis Nekipelov

Abstract

In this paper, we study the identification and estimation of a dynamic discrete game allowing for discrete or continuous state variables. We first provide a general nonparametric identification result under the imposition of an exclusion restriction on agent payoffs. Next we analyze large sample statistical properties of nonparametric and semiparametric estimators for the econometric dynamic game model. We also show how to achieve semiparametric efficiency of dynamic discrete choice models using a sieve based conditional moment framework. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the finite sample properties of the dynamic game estimators. An empirical application to the dynamic demand of the potato chip market shows that this technique can provide a useful tool to distinguish long term demand from short term demand by heterogeneous consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Bajari & Victor Chernozhukov & Han Hong & Denis Nekipelov, 2015. "Identification and Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of a Dynamic Discrete Game," NBER Working Papers 21125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21125
    Note: IO TWP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w21125.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and consumer inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, September.
    3. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    4. Victor Aguirregabiria & Pedro Mira, 2002. "Swapping the Nested Fixed Point Algorithm: A Class of Estimators for Discrete Markov Decision Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1519-1543, July.
    5. Mireia Jofre-Bonet & Martin Pesendorfer, 2003. "Estimation of a Dynamic Auction Game," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1443-1489, September.
    6. Thierry Magnac & David Thesmar, 2002. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Decision Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 801-816, March.
    7. Xiaohong Chen & Oliver Linton & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2003. "Estimation of Semiparametric Models when the Criterion Function Is Not Smooth," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1591-1608, September.
    8. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2012. "A Practical Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 481-498, May.
    9. Fershtman, Chaim & Pakes, Ariel, 2005. "Finite State Dynamic Games with Asymmetric Information: A Framework for Applied Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 5024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Daniel Ackerberg & Xiaohong Chen & Jinyong Hahn, 2011. "Asymptotic Variance Estimator for Two-Step Semiparametric Estimators," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1803, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1637-1673, November.
    12. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2008. "Asymptotic Least Squares Estimators for Dynamic Games -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 901-928.
    13. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Reiss, Peter C., 1991. "Empirical models of discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1-2), pages 57-81.
    14. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    15. Newey, Whitney K, 1990. "Semiparametric Efficiency Bounds," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 99-135, April-Jun.
    16. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    17. Igal Hendel & Aviv Nevo, 2006. "Sales and Consumer Inventory," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 37(3), pages 543-561, Autumn.
    18. Martin Pesendorfer & Philipp Schmidt-Dengler, 2010. "Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games: A Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 833-842, March.
    19. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan A. Cook & C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Lawell, 2020. "Wind Turbine Shutdowns and Upgrades in Denmark: Timing Decisions and the Impact of Government Policy," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(3), pages 81-118, May.
    2. Jackson Bunting, 2022. "Continuous permanent unobserved heterogeneity in dynamic discrete choice models," Papers 2202.03960, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    3. Taiga Tsubota, 2021. "Identifying Dynamic Discrete Choice Models with Hyperbolic Discounting," Papers 2111.10721, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Evgeny Yakovlev, 2016. "Demand for Alcohol Consumption and Implication for Mortality: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers w0221, New Economic School (NES).
    5. Jaap H. Abbring & Jeffrey R. Campbell & Jan Tilly & Nan Yang, 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics: Empirics," Working Paper Series WP-2018-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    6. Abbring, Jaap & Daljord, Øystein, 2016. "Identifying the Discount Factor in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 11133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Song Yao & Carl F. Mela, 2011. "A Dynamic Model of Sponsored Search Advertising," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(3), pages 447-468, 05-06.
    8. Haitian Xie, 2020. "Efficient and Robust Estimation of the Generalized LATE Model," Papers 2001.06746, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    9. Abbring, Jaap & Campbell, J.R. & Tilly, J. & Yang, N., 2018. "Very Simple Markov-Perfect Industry Dynamics (revision of 2017-021) : Empirics," Discussion Paper 2018-040, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. Zhaohui (Zoey) Jiang & Yan Huang & Damian R. Beil, 2022. "The Role of Feedback in Dynamic Crowdsourcing Contests: A Structural Empirical Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(7), pages 4858-4877, July.
    11. Pedro M. Gardete, 2016. "Competing Under Asymmetric Information: The Case of Dynamic Random Access Memory Manufacturing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(11), pages 3291-3309, November.
    12. A. Ronald Gallant & Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja, 2018. "The Dynamic Spillovers of Entry: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1189-1211, March.
    13. Rojas Valdes, Ruben I. & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Taylor, J. Edward, 2017. "The Dynamic Migration Game: A Structural Econometric Model and Application to Rural Mexico," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 259184, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Lawell, Cynthia Lin & Yi, Fujin & Thome, Karen E, 2017. "The Effects of Subsidies and Mandates: A Dynamic Model of the Ethanol Industry," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt73n0t4pv, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    15. Kheiravar, Khaled H, 2019. "Economic and Econometric Analyses of the World Petroleum Industry, Energy Subsidies, and Air Pollution," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt3gj151w9, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2018. "Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 25134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2021. "Linear IV regression estimators for structural dynamic discrete choice models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 778-804.
    3. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul T. & Souza-Rodrigues, Eduardo, 2018. "Linear IV Regression Estimators for Structural Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 13240, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    5. Hu, Yingyao, 2017. "The Econometrics of Unobservables -- Latent Variable and Measurement Error Models and Their Applications in Empirical Industrial Organization and Labor Economics [The Econometrics of Unobservables]," Economics Working Paper Archive 64578, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised 2021.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    7. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    8. Victor Aguirregabiria & Victor Aguirregabiria & Aviv Nevo & Aviv Nevo, 2010. "Recent Developments in Empirical IO: Dynamic Demand and Dynamic Games," Working Papers tecipa-419, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    9. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2021. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: testing and estimation," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 618, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    10. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    11. Scott, Paul, 2014. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Estimation of Agricultural Land Use," TSE Working Papers 14-526, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Taisuke Otsu & Martin Pesendorfer, 2023. "Equilibrium multiplicity in dynamic games: Testing and estimation," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 26-42.
    13. Kalouptsidi, Myrto & Scott, Paul & Souza-Rodrigues, Edouardo, 2015. "Identification of Counterfactuals and Payoffs in Dynamic Discrete Choice with an Application to Land Use," TSE Working Papers 15-596, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    14. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza‐Rodrigues, 2021. "Identification of counterfactuals in dynamic discrete choice models," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(2), pages 351-403, May.
    15. Blevins, Jason R. & Kim, Minhae, 2024. "Nested Pseudo likelihood estimation of continuous-time dynamic discrete games," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    16. Myrto Kalouptsidi & Paul T. Scott & Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues, 2015. "Identification of Counterfactuals in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," NBER Working Papers 21527, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Yoon, Jangsu, 2024. "Identification and estimation of sequential games of incomplete information with multiple equilibria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    18. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Denis Nekipelov & Minjung Park, 2016. "Identification and semiparametric estimation of a finite horizon dynamic discrete choice model with a terminating action," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 271-323, December.
    19. Peter Arcidiacono & Robert A. Miller, 2011. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1823-1867, November.
    20. Paul Ellickson & Sanjog Misra, 2012. "Enriching interactions: Incorporating outcome data into static discrete games," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C57 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Econometrics of Games and Auctions
    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.