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Kuznets' swings and intangible investments in forecast: the case of Greece

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  • Annie Tubadji
  • Vassilis Angelis
  • Peter Nijkamp

Abstract

This article offers an analysis of the relationship between intangible investments and the pattern of local economic productivity in Greece. There are two main objectives in the article: (i) to explore the pattern of economic development in the country; (ii) to find evidence whether this pattern - and its trend - can be better predicted through a forecasting model including intangible investments (next to other relevant factors). To operationalize our study, we use the World Bank Development Indicators database which offers a time-series for Greece for the period from 1981 till date. This data set has two alternative relevant measures for intangible investments: knowledge- and health-related investments. In our analysis we employ first, a centred moving average with a stochastic estimation of the trend, and second a double exponential smoothing, as two alternative ('deductive' and next 'inductive') approaches to identifying a trend in our data for Greece. We find evidence for a Kuznets swing type of cyclical pattern for Greece - confirmed by triangulation. Most significantly, we also find a relationship between local economic development and intangible investments. These results prompt an evidence-based query about underlying Myrdalian and Tieboutian foundations of wave theory for understanding local economic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Annie Tubadji & Vassilis Angelis & Peter Nijkamp, 2016. "Kuznets' swings and intangible investments in forecast: the case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 56-62, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:23:y:2016:i:1:p:56-62
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2015.1049332
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    2. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Peter Nijkamp & Emilia Rossi & Gabriella Vindigni, 2004. "Ecological Footprints in Plural: A Meta-analytic Comparison of Empirical Results," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 747-765.
    4. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Introduction to "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 3-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuqing Hu & Piyush Tiwari, 2021. "Examining the Macroeconomic Determinants of Property Cycles in Australia," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(2), pages 293-322.

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