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Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates

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Abstract

Over the past 25 years, world long-term interest rates have declined to levels not seen since the 1960s. This decline has been accompanied by falling world investment and savings rates. The authors explore global saving and investment outcomes that have led to the fall in the world real interest rate. The results show that the key factors explaining movements in savings and investment are variables that evolve relatively slowly over time, such as labour force growth and the age structure of the world economy. The conclusions suggest that, over the coming years, it is unlikely that these slowly changing variables will be a source of significant changes in world real interest rates.

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  • Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2006. "Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Winter), pages 3-17.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2007:y:2007:i:winter06-07:p:3-17
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    Cited by:

    1. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma, 2007. "Mr. Wicksell and the global economy: What drives real interest rates?," Working Papers 2007-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2010. "World real interest rates: a global savings and investment perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2801-2816.
    3. Barry Eichengreen, 2018. "Deflation and monetary policy," Chapters, in: Dongchul Cho & Takatoshi Ito & Andrew Mason (ed.), Economic Stagnation in Japan, chapter 9, pages 183-201, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    5. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Wall of Worries: Reflections on the Secular Stagnation Debate," IMES Discussion Paper Series 15-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Faris Alshubiri, 2022. "The Impact of the Real Interest Rate, the Exchange Rate and Political Stability on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: A Comparative Analysis of G7 and GCC Countries," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 569-603, September.
    7. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    8. Rehme, Günther, 2018. "On ‘Rusting’ Money Silvio Gesell’s Schwundgeld Reconsidered," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 106303, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    9. Paul Beaudry & Philippe Bergevin, 2013. "The New "Normal" for Interest Rates in Canada: The Implications of Long-Term Shifts in Global Saving and Investment," e-briefs 156, C.D. Howe Institute.
    10. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:139:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2007. "‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 215-239, December.
    12. Abdulaziz Hamad Algaeed, 2017. "The Impacts of Non-linear Oil Price Shocks on Saudi Savinginvestment Behavior: An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 155-165.

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