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Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bankalar Tarafından Verilen Konut Kredileri, Konut Satışları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki (2010:Q1-2020:Q3)

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  • Haydar Karadağ

    (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi, İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümü, Rize, Türkiye.)

Abstract

Ekonomilerde işsizlikte artış yaşandığında, bireylerin gelecekte elde edecekleri gelir akışına ilişkin belirsizlikler de artmaktadır. Bu durum bireylerin konut talebini azaltabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte bireylerin konut alabilmesi amacıyla bankalar tarafından verilen konut kredileri ise, konut talebini artırmaktadır. Ancak işsizliğin artması, konut kredilerine yönelik talebi ve dolayısıyla konut satışlarını azaltacaktır. Bu bakımdan çalışma, Türkiye ekonomisinde bankalar tarafından verilen konut kredileri, işsizlik ve konut satışları arasındaki ilişkiyle ilgilenmektedir. Çalışmada Türkiye’de 2010:Q1-2020:Q3 dönemini kapsayan çeyreklik verilerle Türkiye’de işsizlik, konut kredileri ve konut satışları arasındaki ilişki test edilmiştir. Bu kapsamda serilerin durağanlığı ADF birim kök testi ile sınanmış ve serilerin farkları alındığında durağan hale geldikleri tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi yapılmıştır. Değişkenlere ait katsayı tahmini için ise CCR tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre, konut kredilerindeki %1’lik artış işsizliği %0,46 birim arttırırken, toplam konut satışındaki %1’lik artış işsizliği %0,59 birim arttırmaktadır. Aynı zamanda işsizlikteki %1’lik artış konut kredilerini %1,67 birim, toplam konut satışlarını ise %1,019 birim arttırmaktadır.

Suggested Citation

  • Haydar Karadağ, 2021. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Bankalar Tarafından Verilen Konut Kredileri, Konut Satışları ve İşsizlik Arasındaki İlişki (2010:Q1-2020:Q3)," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(80), pages 403-422, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ist:iujspc:v:0:y:2021:i:80:p:403-422
    DOI: 10.26650/jspc.2021.80.001609
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