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The Welfare Cost of Uncertain Tax Policy

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  • Jonathan S. Skinner

Abstract

Frequent shifts in tax policy can increase uncertainty about future net-of-tax wages and interest income. This paper measures the impact of uncertain tax policy on savings, labor supply, and welfare in the United States. A vector autoregression model with six variables was estimated which found the standard error of the one-year-ahead forecast for the wage tax to be 1.8 percentage points, and for the interest income tax 3.3 percentage points. Furthermore, the negative correlation between unanticipated shifts in the real interest rate and changes in the interest income tax amplifies the variability in the real after-tax return. A two-period model of consumption and labor supply is developed that measures the effect of uncertain taxes on savings, work hours, and taxpayer welfare. Using plausible empirical parameters, it is shown that removing all uncertainty about future tax policy can lead to a welfare gain of 0.4 percent of national income, or about 12 billion dollars in 1985.

Suggested Citation

  • Jonathan S. Skinner, 1986. "The Welfare Cost of Uncertain Tax Policy," NBER Working Papers 1947, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1947
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    1. Giacomo Brusco & Benjamin Glass, 2023. "Risky business: policy uncertainty and investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1331-1345, October.
    2. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    3. Unal, Umut, 2015. "Capital Income Taxation and Welfare under DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 68416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. James R. Hines Jr. & Michael Keen, 2018. "Certain Effects of Uncertain Taxes," NBER Working Papers 25388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Donald Bruce & William Fox & Matthew Murray, 2003. "To Tax Or Not To Tax? The Case Of Electronic Commerce," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 25-40, January.
    6. Rainer Niemann, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2075, CESifo.
    7. Niemann, Rainer, 2006. "The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 21, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Sydnee Caldwell & Scott Nelson & Daniel Waldinger, 2023. "Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 352-376, April.
    9. Hines Jr., James R. & Keen, Michael J., 2021. "Certain effects of random taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    10. Ortmann, Regina, 2015. "Uncertainty in weighting formulary apportionment factors and its impact on after-tax income of multinational groups," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 184, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    11. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2016. "Does capital tax uncertainty delay irreversible risky investment?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 209, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    12. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    13. Gunther Tichy, 2014. "Zum Wandel der Finanzierungsstruktur in der Wohlstandsgesellschaft," WIFO Working Papers 488, WIFO.
    14. Kang, Wensheng & de Gracia, Fernando Perez & Ratti, Ronald A., 2019. "The asymmetric response of gasoline prices to oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 66-79.
    15. Young Chun, 2001. "The Redistributive Effect of Risky Taxation," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 8(4), pages 433-454, August.
    16. Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Andrew A. Samwick, 2018. "The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 275-307, February.
    17. Minjoon Lee & Jinhui Bai & Fudong Zhang & Ruediger Bachmann, 2014. "The Welfare Costs of Fiscal Uncertainty: a Quantitative Evaluation," 2014 Meeting Papers 744, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2019. "A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2019/159, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Gunther Tichy, 2015. "Zum Wandel der Finanzierungsstruktur in der Wohlstandsgesellschaft. WWWforEurope Policy Paper Nr. 20," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57889.
    20. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2016. "Does Capital Tax Uncertainty Delay Irreversible Risky Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6046, CESifo.
    21. Rainer Niemann, 2001. "Tax Rate Uncertainty and Investment Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 557, CESifo.
    22. Jean-Marc Fournier & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2020. "A Model-based Fiscal Taylor Rule and a Toolkit to Assess the Fiscal Stance," IMF Working Papers 2020/033, International Monetary Fund.

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