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Zum Wandel der Finanzierungsstruktur in der Wohlstandsgesellschaft. WWWforEurope Policy Paper Nr. 20

Author

Listed:
  • Gunther Tichy

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Die Sparpläne der privaten Haushalte übersteigen derzeit weltweit den beschränkten Finanzierungsbedarf der Unternehmen; die Differenz schlägt sich in einer Zunahme der Staatsverschuldung nieder. In der EU verzeichneten die nicht-finanziellen Kapitalgesellschaften in den letzten zweieinhalb Jahrzehnten in einem von drei Jahren Finanzierungsüberschüsse, in den wohlhabenderen EU-Ländern (EU 15) sogar in jedem zweiten Jahr. Vieles spricht dafür, dass das nicht bloß eine Folge der Finanzmarktkrise ist, sondern weltweit im südostasiatischen Wirtschaftsmodell angelegt ist, in Europa hingegen ein Symptom der Wohlstandsgesellschaft: Finanzielle Absicherung gewinnt an Bedeutung, und das langsamere Wachstum erfordert weniger Investitionen. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte daher auf ein Anhalten der gegenwärtigen Situation vorbereitet sein; ohne Gegenmaßnahmen wäre eine rezessive Anpassung der Sparfähigkeit an die Verschuldungsbereitschaft von Wirtschaft und Staat erforderlich. Gegen die weltweiten Verwerfungen, die primär auf die südostasiatische exportbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik zurückgehen, können nur eine stärker inlandsorientierte Politik dieser Länder und eine erhebliche Aufwertung (Aufgabe der Dollarbindung) helfen. Ansätze dazu gibt es, doch ist angesichts der Dimension des Problems mit einer langen Übergangsphase zu rechnen. In der EU bedarf es eines breiten und wohl ausgewogenen Maßnahmenpakets. Es müsste durch Vertrauensbildung das Vorsichtssparen dämpfen, die Unternehmensfinanzierung verbessern, aber auch die stark eingeschränkten Investitionen im öffentlichen Bereich wiederbeleben. Weiters sollte vor allem in den Ländern, in denen die Finanzierung und Bedienung der Staatsschulden kein Problem verursacht, die früher übliche Trennung in einen Überschüsse erzielenden ordentlichen Haushalt der laufenden Ausgaben und einen Investitionshaushalt wieder eingeführt werden, innerhalb dessen primär immaterielle Investitionen innerhalb bestimmter Grenzen schuldenfinanziert werden können.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2015. "Zum Wandel der Finanzierungsstruktur in der Wohlstandsgesellschaft. WWWforEurope Policy Paper Nr. 20," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57889, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:57889
    Note: With English abstract.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Aiginger, 2016. "New Dynamics for Europe: Reaping the Benefits of Socio-ecological Transition – Part I: Synthesis. WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 11," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58791, August.
    2. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Persistente Strukturprobleme trotz zutreffender Strukturprognosen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(8), pages 553-571, August.

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