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A Theory of Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks

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  • Leonid Kogan
  • Dimitris Papanikolaou

Abstract

We provide a theoretical model linking firm characteristics and expected returns. The key ingredient of our model is technological shocks embodied in new capital (IST shocks), which affect the profitability of new investments. Firms' exposure to IST shocks is endogenously determined by the fraction of firm value due to growth opportunities. In our structural model, several firm characteristics - Tobin's Q, past investment, earnings-price ratios, market betas, and idiosyncratic volatility of stock returns - help predict the share of growth opportunities in the firm's market value, and are therefore correlated with the firm's exposure to IST shocks and risk premia. Our calibrated model replicates: i) the predictability of returns by firm characteristics; ii) the comovement of stock returns on firms with similar characteristics; iii) the failure of the CAPM to price portfolio returns of firms sorted on characteristics; iv) the time-series predictability of market portfolio returns by aggregate investment and valuation ratios; and v) a downward sloping term structure of risk premia for dividend strips. Our model delivers testable predictions about the behavior of firm-level real variables - investment and output growth - that are supported by the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "A Theory of Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17975
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    Cited by:

    1. Hengjie Ai & Mariano Max Croce & Anthony M Diercks & Kai Li, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2423-2467.
    2. Frederico Belo & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2012. "Endogenous Dividend Dynamics and the Term Structure of Dividend Strips," NBER Working Papers 18450, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Holger Kraft & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Farina Weiss, 2013. "Growth Options and Firm Valuation," NBER Working Papers 18836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael Weber, 2014. "Nominal Rigidities and Asset Pricing," 2014 Meeting Papers 53, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Noah Stoffman, 2013. "Winners and Losers: Creative Destruction and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 18671, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kenneth Marangu & Stephen Muathe & Lucy Mwangi, 2019. "Firm Factors and Share Returns of Secondary Equity Offers at Nairobi," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(6), pages 107-107, June.
    7. Kraft, Holger & Schwartz, Eduardo S. & Weiss, Farina, 2017. "Growth options and firm valuation," SAFE Working Paper Series 6, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2017.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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