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An Analysis of the Stabilizing and Welfare Effects of Intervention in Spot and Futures Markets

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  • Robert B. Campbell
  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of three alternative rules on the long-run distributions of both the spot and futures prices ina single commodity market, in which the key behavioral relationships are derived from the optimizing behavior of producers and speculators.The rules considered include: (i) leaning against the wind in the spot market; (ii) utility maximizing speculative behavior by the stabilization authority in the futures market; (iii) leaning against the wind in the futures market. Since the underlying model is sufficiently complex to preclude analytical solutions, the analysis makes extensive use of simulation methods. As a general proposition we find that intervention in the futures market is not as effective in stabilizing either the spot price of the futures price as is intervention in the spot market. Indeed, Rule (iii), while stabilizing the futures price may actually destabilize the spot price. Furthermore, the analogous type of rule undertaken in the spot market will always stabilize the futures price to a greater degree than it does the spot price. The welfare implications of these rules are also discussed. Our analysis shows how these can generate rather different distributions of welfare gains, including the overall benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert B. Campbell & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1985. "An Analysis of the Stabilizing and Welfare Effects of Intervention in Spot and Futures Markets," NBER Working Papers 1698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1698
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    1. Newbery, D M G & Stiglitz, J E, 1979. "The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilisation Rules: Welfare Impacts and Supply Responses," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(356), pages 799-817, December.
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    1. Innes, Robert, 1987. "Government Target Price Intervention in Economies with Incomplete Markets: Welfare and Distribution," 1987 Annual Meeting, August 2-5, East Lansing, Michigan 270102, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Umar, Muhammad & Su, Chi-Wei & Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2021. "Driven by fundamentals or exploded by emotions: Detecting bubbles in oil prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).

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