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The Trend of BMI Values of US Adults by Centiles, birth cohorts 1882-1986

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  • John Komlos
  • Marek Brabec

Abstract

Trends in BMI values are estimated by centiles of the US adult population by birth cohorts 1886-1986 stratified by ethnicity. The highest centile increased by some 18 to 22 units in the course of the century while the lowest ones increased by merely 1 to 3 units. Hence, the BMI distribution became increasingly right skewed as the distance between the centiles became increasingly larger. The rate of change of BMI centile curves varied considerably over time. The BMI of white men and women experienced upsurges after the two World Wars and downswings during the Great Depression and again after 1970. However, among blacks the pattern is different during the first half of the century with men's rate of increase in BMI values decreasing substantially and that of females remaining unchanged at a relatively high level until the Second World War. However, after the war the rate of change of BMI values of blacks resembled that of the whites with an accelerating phase followed by a slow down around the 1970s. In sum, the creeping nature of the obesity epidemic is evident, as the technological and lifestyle changes of the 20th century affected various segments of the population quite differently.

Suggested Citation

  • John Komlos & Marek Brabec, 2010. "The Trend of BMI Values of US Adults by Centiles, birth cohorts 1882-1986," NBER Working Papers 16252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16252
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stasinopoulos, D. Mikis & Rigby, Robert A., 2007. "Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 23(i07).
    2. John Komlos & Marek Brabec, 2010. "The Trend of Mean BMI Values of US Adults, Birth Cohorts 1882-1986 Indicates that the Obesity Epidemic Began Earlier than Hitherto Thought," NBER Working Papers 15862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. R. A. Rigby & D. M. Stasinopoulos, 2005. "Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 54(3), pages 507-554, June.
    4. T. J. Cole, 1988. "Fitting Smoothed Centile Curves to Reference Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 151(3), pages 385-406, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elsayyad, May & Konrad, Kai A., 2012. "Fighting multiple tax havens," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 295-305.
    2. John Komlos & Marek Brabec, 2010. "The Trend of BMI Values by Centiles of US Adults, Birth Cohorts 1882-1986," CESifo Working Paper Series 3132, CESifo.
    3. Trüb, Fabienne P & Wells, Jonathan CK & Rühli, Frank J & Staub, Kaspar & Floris, Joël, 2020. "Filling the weight gap: Estimating body weight and BMI using height, chest and upper arm circumference of Swiss conscripts in the first half of the 20th century," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Jolliffe, Dean, 2011. "Overweight and poor? On the relationship between income and the body mass index," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 342-355.
    5. Scott A. Carson, 2021. "Nineteenth Century Body Mass, Height, and Weight: Inequality across Quantiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 9135, CESifo.
    6. Mary A. Burke & Frank Heiland, 2011. "Explaining gender-specific racial differences in obesity using biased self-reports of food intake," Working Papers 11-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    7. Liczbińska, Grażyna & Czapla, Zbigniew & Nowak, Oskar & Piontek, Janusz, 2016. "Body mass index values of conscripts in the Polish lands under Prussian rule in the late 19th and early 20th centuries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 75-83.
    8. Kelly, Inas R. & Doytch, Nadia & Dave, Dhaval, 2019. "How does body mass index affect economic growth? A comparative analysis of countries by levels of economic development," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-73.

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    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General

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