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Why did HIV decline in Uganda?

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  • Marcella M. Alsan
  • David M. Cutler

Abstract

Uganda is widely viewed as a public health success for curtailing its HIV/AIDS epidemic in the early 1990s. We investigate the factors contributing to this decline. We first build a model of HIV transmission. Calibration of the model indicates that reduced pre-marital sexual activity among young women is the most important factor in the decline in HIV. We next explore what led young women to change their behavior. We estimate that approximately one-third the reduction in HIV in this cohort and almost 20 percent of the overall HIV decline was due to a gender-targeted education policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcella M. Alsan & David M. Cutler, 2010. "Why did HIV decline in Uganda?," NBER Working Papers 16171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16171
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    17. repec:pri:rpdevs:case%20paxson%20the%20impact%20of%20the%20aids%20pandemic%20march%206 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Cagé, Julia & Rueda, Valeria, 2020. "Sex and the mission: the conflicting effects of early Christian missions on HIV in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 213-257, September.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/76npisrda99aop75h6fmi4vduu is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/76npisrda99aop75h6fmi4vduu is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/76npisrda99aop75h6fmi4vduu is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/76npisrda99aop75h6fmi4vduu is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Alsan, Marcella M. & Cutler, David M., 2013. "Girls’ education and HIV risk: Evidence from Uganda," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 863-872.
    7. Cagé, Julia & Rueda, Valeria, 2017. "Sex and the Mission: The Conflicting Effects of Early Christian Investments on the HIV Epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 12192, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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