IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/15937.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Ang
  • Nicolas P.B. Bollen

Abstract

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with CRRA utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ang & Nicolas P.B. Bollen, 2010. "Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option," NBER Working Papers 15937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15937
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w15937.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Detemple, Jerome & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1999. "Nontraded Asset Valuation with Portfolio Constraints: A Binomial Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 835-872.
    3. Longstaff, Francis A, 1995. "How Much Can Marketability Affect Security Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1767-1774, December.
    4. Kahl, Matthias & Liu, Jun & Longstaff, Francis A., 2003. "Paper millionaires: how valuable is stock to a stockholder who is restricted from selling it?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 385-410, March.
    5. Lerner, Josh & Schoar, Antoinette, 2004. "The illiquidity puzzle: theory and evidence from private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 3-40, April.
    6. Martin Cherkes & Jacob Sagi & Richard Stanton, 2009. "A Liquidity-Based Theory of Closed-End Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 257-297, January.
    7. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2010. "Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-255, February.
    8. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard Stanton, 2007. "Managerial Ability, Compensation, and the Closed‐End Fund Discount," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 529-556, April.
    9. Aragon, George O., 2007. "Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 33-58, January.
    10. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, June.
    11. Murphy, Kevin J., 1999. "Executive compensation," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 38, pages 2485-2563, Elsevier.
    12. George C. Chacko & Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2008. "The Price of Immediacy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1253-1290, June.
    13. Francis A. Longstaff, 2009. "Portfolio Claustrophobia: Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1119-1144, September.
    14. repec:eee:labchp:v:3:y:1999:i:pb:p:2485-2563 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 309-326, September.
    16. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    17. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Pool, Veronika K., 2008. "Conditional Return Smoothing in the Hedge Fund Industry," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 267-298, June.
    18. Tarun Ramadorai, 2012. "The Secondary Market for Hedge Funds and the Closed Hedge Fund Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 479-512, April.
    19. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
    20. Gârleanu, Nicolae, 2009. "Portfolio choice and pricing in illiquid markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 532-564, March.
    21. Myron S. Scholes, 2000. "Crisis and Risk Management," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 17-21, May.
    22. Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-186, March.
    23. G N Gregoriou, 2002. "Hedge fund survival lifetimes," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 3(3), pages 237-252, December.
    24. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E., 2004. "Modeling the bid/ask spread: measuring the inventory-holding premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 97-141, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Itzhak Ben-David & Justin Birru & Andrea Rossi, 2020. "The Performance of Hedge Fund Performance Fees," NBER Working Papers 27454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Aiken, Adam L. & Clifford, Christopher P. & Ellis, Jesse A., 2015. "Hedge funds and discretionary liquidity restrictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 197-218.
    3. Aragon, George O. & Martin, J. Spencer & Shi, Zhen, 2019. "Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(2), pages 345-361.
    4. Hombert, Johan & Thesmar, David, 2014. "Overcoming limits of arbitrage: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 26-44.
    5. Hong, Xin, 2014. "The dynamics of hedge fund share restrictions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 82-99.
    6. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Berk A. Sensoy, 2022. "How much for a haircut? Illiquidity, secondary markets, and the value of private equity," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 501-538, June.
    7. Schaub, Nic & Schmid, Markus, 2013. "Hedge fund liquidity and performance: Evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 671-692.
    8. Andrew Ang & Dimitris Papanikolaou & Mark M. Westerfield, 2014. "Portfolio Choice with Illiquid Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2737-2761, November.
    9. Wang, Xiaoxiao & Zhang, Xueyong, 2024. "Bank affiliation and timing ability of mutual funds: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    10. Ang, Andrew & Gorovyy, Sergiy & van Inwegen, Gregory B., 2011. "Hedge fund leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 102-126, October.
    11. Francis Longstaff, 2014. "Valuing Thinly-Traded Assets," NBER Working Papers 20589, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chen, Linda H. & Dyl, Edward A. & Jiang, George J. & Juneja, Januj A., 2015. "Risk, illiquidity or marketability: What matters for the discounts on private equity placements?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 41-50.
    13. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    14. Lee, Dongyeol & Kim, Woo Chang, 2021. "Cost of shareholder engagement by institutional investors under short-swing profit rule," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    15. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Bing Liang & Andrew W. Lo, 2017. "Return Smoothing, Liquidity Costs, and Investor Flows: Evidence from a Separate Account Platform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2233-2250, July.
    16. Kurt F. Lewis & Francis A. Longstaff & Lubomir Petrasek, 2017. "Asset Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 23231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    2. Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022. "Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
    3. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Yang CAO & Joseph P. OGDEN & Cristian I. TIU, 2011. "Who Benefits From Funds Of Hedge Funds? A Critique Of Alternative Organizational Structures In The Hedge Fund Industry (I)," Business Excellence and Management, Faculty of Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 1(1), pages 19-36, December.
    5. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Charles Cao & Grant Farnsworth & Bing Liang & Andrew W. Lo, 2017. "Return Smoothing, Liquidity Costs, and Investor Flows: Evidence from a Separate Account Platform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(7), pages 2233-2250, July.
    7. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Martin Eling, 2009. "Does Hedge Fund Performance Persist? Overview and New Empirical Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(2), pages 362-401, March.
    9. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 963-999, June.
    10. George Aragon & Bing Liang & Hyuna Park, 2014. "Onshore and Offshore Hedge Funds: Are They Twins?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 74-91, January.
    11. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai, 2013. "On the High-Frequency Dynamics of Hedge Fund Risk Exposures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(2), pages 597-635, April.
    12. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    13. Douglas Cumming & Na Dai, 2010. "A Law and Finance Analysis of Hedge Funds," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(3), pages 997-1026, September.
    14. Wilkens, Marco & Yao, Juan & Jeyasreedharan, Nagaratnam & Oehler, Patrick, 2013. "Measuring the performance of hedge funds using two-stage peer group benchmarks," Working Papers 2013-18, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 Jun 2013.
    15. Aragon, George O., 2007. "Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 33-58, January.
    16. Francis A. Longstaff, 2018. "Valuing Thinly Traded Assets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(8), pages 3868-3878, August.
    17. Faff, Robert W. & Parwada, Jerry T. & Tan, Eric K.M., 2019. "Did connected hedge funds benefit from bank bailouts during the financial crisis?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    18. Dai, Na & Nahata, Rajarishi & Brauner, Aaron, 2022. "Does individualism matter for hedge funds? A cross-country examination," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    19. Park, Hyuna, 2015. "Emerging market hedge funds in the United States," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 25-42.
    20. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2019. "Upside potential of hedge funds as a predictor of future performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 212-229.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15937. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.