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The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies

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  • Geoffrey H. Moore
  • Victor Zarnowitz

Abstract

A working definition, first formulated in the 1920's by Mitchell and revised in the 1940's, has been in use at the National Bureau for over fifty years and is still employed to identify and date business cycles. The NBER historical chronologies for England, France, and Germany as well as the United States have been intensively in economic research and are widely accepted. The U.S. chronology, which is being updated as promptly as the data allow, also have the important practical function of aiding the analysis of current business conditions and forecasting near-term cyclical developments. This paper discusses the main aspects of the NBER concept of business cycles; the early views and developments bearing on the construction of the chronologies; the problems and procedures involved; the characteristics and dependability of the historical reference dates; and the National Bureau's work in this field since World War II. Some recent uses of the U.S. dates to measure the duration, amplitudes, and diffusion of business expansions and contractions are illustrated. Finally, we show and discuss chronologies of growth cycles,' i.e., trend-adjusted business cycles, for 13 countries in the post-World War II period.

Suggested Citation

  • Geoffrey H. Moore & Victor Zarnowitz, 1984. "The Development and Role of the National Bureau's Business Cycle Chronologies," NBER Working Papers 1394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1394
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zarnowitz, Victor & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1982. "Sequential Signals of Recession and Recovery," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(1), pages 57-85, January.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz, 1981. "Business Cycles and Growth: Some Reflections and Measures," NBER Working Papers 0665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Oskar Morgenstern, 1959. "International Financial Transactions and Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number morg59-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    2. Ernst. A. Boehm & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1984. "New Economic Indicators for Australia, 1949‐84," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 17(4), pages 34-56, December.
    3. Philip Cross & Philippe Bergevin, 2012. "Turning Points: Business Cycles in Canada Since 1926," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 366, October.
    4. Simkins, Scott, 1995. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models subject to business cycle restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 569-583, December.
    5. Solomon Abayomi Olakojo, 2018. "Foreign Trade and International Financial Flows: Implications for Economic Stability in the Selected ECOWAS Countries," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 22(1), pages 63-103, Winter.
    6. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Victor Zarnowitz & Geoffrey H. Moore, 1984. "Major Changes in Cyclical Behavior," NBER Working Papers 1395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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