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Tacit Collusion in the Presence of Cyclical Demand and Endogenous Capacity Levels

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  • Christopher R. Knittel
  • Jason J. Lepore

Abstract

We analyze tacit collusion in an industry characterized by cyclical demand and long-run scale decisions; firms face deterministic demand cycles and choose capacity levels prior to competing in prices. Our focus is on the nature of prices. We find that two types of price wars may exist. In one, collusion can involve periods of mixed strategy price wars. In the other, consistent with the Rotemberg and Saloner (1986) definition of price wars, we show that collusive prices can also become countercyclical. We also establish pricing patterns with respect to the relative prices in booms and recessions. If the marginal cost of capacity is high enough, holding current demand constant, prices in the boom will be generally lower than the prices in the recession; this reverses the results of Haltiwanger and Harrington (1991). In contrast, if the marginal cost of capacity is low enough, then prices in the boom will be generally higher than the prices in the recession. For costs in an intermediate range, numerical examples are calculated to show specific pricing patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher R. Knittel & Jason J. Lepore, 2006. "Tacit Collusion in the Presence of Cyclical Demand and Endogenous Capacity Levels," NBER Working Papers 12635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12635
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    Cited by:

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    3. Marcelo Resende & Rodrigo M. Zeidan, 2011. "Tacit Collusion under Imperfect Monitoring in the Canadian Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Study," CESifo Working Paper Series 3623, CESifo.
    4. Heikki Peura & Derek W. Bunn, 2015. "Dynamic Pricing of Peak Production," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(6), pages 1262-1279, December.
    5. António Brandão & Joana Pinho & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2014. "Asymmetric Collusion with Growing Demand," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 429-472, December.
    6. Carmen García & Joan Ramon Borrell & José Manuel Ordóñez-de-Haro & Juan Luis Jiménez, 2022. "Managers’ expectations, business cycles and cartels’ life cycle," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 451-484, June.
    7. Luke Garrod & Matthew Olczak, 2017. "Collusion Under Imperfect Monitoring with Asymmetric Firms," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 654-682, September.
    8. Gugler, Klaus & Weichselbaumer, Michael & Zulehner, Christine, 2020. "Employment behavior and the economic crisis: Evidence from winners and runners-up in procurement auctions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    9. Johannes Paha, 2013. "The Impact of Persistent Shocks and Concave Objective Functions on Collusive Behavior," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201328, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Sylwester Bejger, 2010. "Collusion and seasonality of market price - A case of fixed market shares," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 2(2), pages 48-59, July.
    11. João Correia-da-Silva & Joana Pinho & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2014. "Sustaining collusion in markets with a general evolution of demand," FEP Working Papers 537, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Johannes Paha, 2017. "The Value of Collusion with Endogenous Capacity and Demand Uncertainty," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 623-653, September.
    13. Bejger, Sylwester, 2010. "Collusion and seasonality of market price - A case of fixed market shares," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 2(2), pages 1-12, July.
    14. Swoboda, Sandra Maria, 2017. "Einfluss ausgewählter Determinanten auf die Kartellbildung und -stabilität: Eine Literaturstudie," Arbeitspapiere 176, University of Münster, Institute for Cooperatives.
    15. João Correia-da-Silva & Joana Pinho & Hélder Vasconcelos, 2016. "Sustaining collusion in markets with entry driven by balanced growth," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 118(1), pages 1-34, May.
    16. Johannes M. Lehner & David McMillan, 2015. "Making sense in asset markets: Strategies for Implicit Organizations," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1024022-102, December.
    17. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Nili, Masoud & Rastad, Mahdi, 2017. "On quota violations of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 410-422.
    18. Fagart, Thomas, 2022. "Collusion in capacity under irreversible investment," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    19. Dan Bernhardt & Mahdi Rastad, 2016. "Collusion Under Risk Aversion and Fixed Costs," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 808-834, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L0 - Industrial Organization - - General
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L49 - Industrial Organization - - Antitrust Issues and Policies - - - Other

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