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Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980

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  • Richard Portes
  • Richard E. Quandt
  • David Winter
  • Stephen Yeo

Abstract

This paper specifies and estimates a four-equation disequilibrium model of the consumption goods market in a centrally planned economy(CPE).The data are from Poland for the period 1955-1980, but the analysis is more general and will be applied to other CPEs as soon as the appropriate data sets are complete.This work is based on previous papers of Portes and Winter (P-W) and Charemza and Quandt(C-Q).P-W applied to each of four CPEs a discrete-switching disequilibrium model with a household demand equation for consumption goods, a planners' supply equation, and a "min" condition stating that the observed quantity transacted is the lesser of the quantities demanded and supplied.C-Q considered how an equation for the adjustment of planned quantities could be integrated into a CPE model with fixed prices and without the usual price adjustment equation.They made plan formation endogenous and permitted the resulting plan variables to enter the equations determining demand and supply.This paper implements the C-Q proposal in the P-W context.It uses a unique new data set of time series for plans for the major macroeconomic variables in Poland and other CPEs.The overall framework is applicable to any large organization which plans economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Portes & Richard E. Quandt & David Winter & Stephen Yeo, 1983. "Macroeconomic Planning and Disequilibrium: Estimates for Poland, 1955-1980," NBER Working Papers 1182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1182
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    1. Wojciech Charemza & Richard E. Quandt, 1982. "Models and Estimation of Disequilibrium for Centrally Planned Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(1), pages 109-116.
    2. Portes, Richard, 1981. "Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 559-578, October.
    3. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1977. "The supply of consumption goods in centrally planned economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 351-365, December.
    4. Burkett, John P., 1981. "Marginal and conditional probabilities of excess demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 159-162.
    5. Richard Portes & David Winter, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimates for Consumption Goods Markets in Centrally Planned Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 137-159.
    6. Quandt, Richard E., 1981. "Autocorrelated errors in simple disequilibrium models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-61.
    7. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kornai, János, 2010. "Hiánygazdaság - többletgazdaság. Tanulmány a piac elméletéről - II. rész [Shortage economy - surplus economy. A study on market theory II]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1021-1044.
    2. János Kornai & Collegium Budapést, 1995. "Eliminating the shortage economy: a general analysis and examination of the dévelopments in Hungary: Part," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(2), pages 149-168, June.
    3. Welfe, Aleksander, 1996. "The Price-Wage Inflationary Spiral in Poland," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50.
    4. Cecilia Testa, 2005. "Reforms, lobbies and welfare: A common agency approach," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 305-337, December.
    5. Daniel LINOTTE, 1993. "Changements Structurels Et Privatisation Dans Les Économies En Transition," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 311-328, July.
    6. Liefert, William M., 1991. "An Elasticities Approach to Estimating Excess Demand in Price-Controlled Markets," Miscellaneous Publications 333357, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Daniela Veronica Gabor, 2012. "The Road to Financialization in Central and Eastern Europe: The Early Policies and Politics of Stabilizing Transition," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 227-249, April.

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