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Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach

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  • James O'Brien
  • Jeremy Berkowitz

Abstract

Risk in bank trading portfolios and its management are potentially important to the banks' soundness and to the functioning of securities and derivatives markets. In this paper, proprietary daily trading revenues of 6 large dealer banks are used to study the bank dealers' market risks using a market factor model approach. Dealers' exposures to exchange rate, interest rate, equity, and credit market factors are estimated. A factor model framework for variable exposures is presented and two modeling approaches are used: a random coefficient model and rolling factor regressions. The results indicate small average market exposures with significant but relatively moderate variation in exposures over time. Except for interest rates, there is heterogeneity in market exposures across the dealers. For interest rates, the dealers have small average long exposures and exposures vary inversely with the level of rates. Implications for aggregate bank dealer risk and market stability issues are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • James O'Brien & Jeremy Berkowitz, 2005. "Estimating Bank Trading Risk: A Factor Model Approach," NBER Working Papers 11608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2010. "First-passage probability, jump models, and intra-horizon risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 20-40, January.
    2. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2014. "Joint market power in banking: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 253-267.
    3. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2012. "Bank pricing under oligopsony-oligopoly: Evidence from 103 developing countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    4. Marrouch, Walid & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2012. "Bank pricing under oligopsony-oligopoly: Evidence from 103 developing countries," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    5. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_001 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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