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Risk Management with Interdependent Choice

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  • Morris, Stephen
  • Shin, Hyun Song

Abstract

Risks faced by traders from price movements are sometimes magnified by the actions of other traders. Risk-management systems which neglect this feature may give a seriously misleading picture of the true risks. The hazards arising from this potential blindspot are at their most dangerous when the prevailing conventional wisdom lulls traders into a false sense of security on the attractiveness of a trading position. The efforts of one trader to reverse his trade makes more acute the need to follow suit on the part of others. For markets dominated by traders with short time horizons, such interdependence leads to exaggerated price movements. Estimates of "value at risk" which recognize such interdependence of actions can diverge substantially from those given by conventional techniques. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1999. "Risk Management with Interdependent Choice," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 52-62, Autumn.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:15:y:1999:i:3:p:52-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    2. Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Investor Behavior in the October 1987 Stock Market Crash: Survey Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2446, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-597, June.
    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
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