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Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand

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  • Kenneth D. West

Abstract

The relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is puzzling and poorly understood. But under some standard assumptions, interest rates can be adjusted to smooth real exchange rate movements at the possible price of increased volatility in other variables. In New Zealand, estimates made under some generous suppositions about what monetary policy is able to accomplish suggest that decreasing real exchange rate volatility by about 25% would require increasing output volatility by about 10-15%, inflation volatility by about 0-15% and interest rate volatility by about 15-40%.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10280
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Dennis & Kai Leitemo & Ulf Soderstrom, 2006. "Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness," Working Papers 316, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    2. Divino, Jose Angelo & Haraguchi, Carlos, 2022. "Monetary Policy And Reserve Requirements In A Small Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 1073-1106, June.
    3. Juan Pablo Medina & Anella Munro & Claudio Soto, 2008. "What Drives the Current Account in Comodity Exporting Countries? The Cases of Chile and New Zealand," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 10, pages 369-434, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 5(1-2), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Mark Crosby & Timothy Kam & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "How Costly is Exchange Rate Stabilisation for an Inflation Targeter? The Case of Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(266), pages 354-365, September.
    6. Wang, Jian, 2010. "Home bias, exchange rate disconnect, and optimal exchange rate policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 55-78, February.
    7. Julia Ratcliffe & Ross Kendall, 2019. "Monetary policy strategy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-25, April.
    8. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
    9. Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier & Arthur Grimes, 2004. "What Does the Taylor Rule Say About a New Zealand–Australia Currency Union?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 34-42, September.
    10. Divino, Jose Angelo, 2009. "Is there a case for domestic inflation target?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(10), pages 3122-3135.
    11. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    12. Ágeir Daníelsson & Lúdvík Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Björn A. Hauksson & Ragnhildur Jónsdóttir & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2006. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy," Economics wp32, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    13. Kirdan Lees, 2003. "The stabilisation problem: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
    15. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    16. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2015. "The Evolution of Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14611.
    17. Ásgeir Daníelsson & Lúdvik Elíasson & Magnús F. Gudmundsson & Svava J. Haraldsdóttir & Lilja S. Kro & Thórarinn G. Pétursson & Thorsteinn S. Sveinsson, 2019. "QMM A Quarterly Macroeconomic Model of the Icelandic Economy Version 4.0," Economics wp82, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    18. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    19. Mansur, Alfan, 2023. "Capital flow volatility regimes and monetary policy dilemma: Evidence from New Zealand," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    20. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2007. "The Optimal Degree of Exchange Rate Flexibility: a Target Zone Approach," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 803-822, September.
    21. Kirdan Lees, 2006. "What do robust policies look like for open economy inflation targeters?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    22. Jeffery D. Amato & Andrew Filardo & Gabriele Galati & Goetz von Peter & Feng Zhu, 2005. "Research on exchange rates and monetary policy: an overview," BIS Working Papers 178, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Nils Björksten & Arthur Grimes & Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier, 2004. "What can the Taylor rule tell us about a currency union between New Zealand and Australia?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    24. Vijay Kumar & Sanjeev Acharya & Ly T. H. Ho, 2020. "Does Monetary Policy Influence the Profitability of Banks in New Zealand?," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, June.
    25. James Twaddle & David Hargreaves & Tim Hampton, 2006. "Other stabilisation objectives within an inflation targeting regime: Some stochastic simulation experiments," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2006/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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