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What drives the New Zealand dollar?

Author

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  • Anella Munro

    (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

Abstract

This article draws together some of our recent exchange rate research. The research is interpreted against an asset price view of the exchange rate, which has become increasingly relevant as foreign exchange market turnover has become dominated by capital market transactions unrelated to trade in goods and services. Factors that affect expected relative returns on New Zealand dollar assets (eg interest rates, export commodity prices, fixed asset prices and a notion of equilibrium) are found to explain a considerable part of exchange rate cycles, even though they explain only a small part of short-term exchange rate fluctuations. The sources of the relative stability of the Australia-New Zealand bilateral exchange rate and the larger variation of the New Zealand-United States bilateral exchange rate are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbbul:june2004:3
    as

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    File URL: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/-/media/ReserveBank/Files/Publications/Bulletins/2004/2004june67-2munro.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
    2. Kenneth West, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 175-196.
    3. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
    4. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    5. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 0009, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    6. David Hargreaves, 2003. "Monetary policy and the volatility of real exchange rates in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 66, pages 1-2, September.
    7. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Kelly Eckhold & Chris Hunt, 2005. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new foreign exchange intervention policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Foreign exchange market intervention in emerging markets: motives, techniques and implications, volume 24, pages 231-41, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Gemma Mabin, 2010. "New Zealand's Exchange Rate Cycles: Evidence and Drivers," Treasury Working Paper Series 10/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    5. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 5(1-2), pages 1-10, March.
    6. Wang, Wenhao & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2023. "Commodity price effects on currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    8. Angela Huang, 2004. "Examining finite-sample problems in the application of cointegration tests for long-run bilateral exchange rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    9. Willy Chetwin & Tim Ng & Daan Steenkamp, 2013. "New Zealand’s short- and medium-term real exchange rate volatility: drivers and policy implications," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Chris McDonald, 2012. "Kiwi drivers the New Zealand dollar experience," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2012/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. Aaron Drew & Rishab Sethi, 2007. "The transmission mechanism of New Zealand monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 70, June.

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