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What can the Taylor rule tell us about a currency union between New Zealand and Australia?

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Abstract

The merits of a trans-Tasman currency union have been debated in both New Zealand and Australia. It has been suggested that the New Zealand economy may not behave too differently from at least some of the Australian states, ie they have similar characteristics and they face similar shocks. We test this, under the presumption that the differences in Taylor rule implied interest rate paths for different regions over a business cycle can give us some indication about the nature of the differences in "aggregate" shocks that hit different economies. We compare the implied Taylor rule interest rates for the Australian states to the implied Taylor rule rates for New Zealand. We also compare them to the realised 90 day rates. We find that the Taylor rule implied interest rate paths in Australian regions and in New Zealand are not very different.

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  • Nils Björksten & Arthur Grimes & Özer Karagedikli & Christopher Plantier, 2004. "What can the Taylor rule tell us about a currency union between New Zealand and Australia?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2004/05
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    Cited by:

    1. Grimes, Arthur, 2005. "Regional and industry cycles in Australasia: Implications for a common currency," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 380-397, June.
    2. Viv B. Hall & C. John McDermott, 2012. "Is there an unobserved components common cycle for Australasia? Implications for a common currency," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 119-141, September.
    3. Richard Fabling & Arthur Grimes, 2015. "Over the Hedge: Do Exporters Practice Selective Hedging?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 321-338, April.
    4. Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Intra & Inter-Regional Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union," Working Papers 05_03, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    5. Arthur Grimes, 2007. "Trans-Tasman shocks: A mediating role for the NZDAUD," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 237-250.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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