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A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives

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  • Jason C. Hsu
  • Eduardo S. Schwartz

Abstract

We develop a real options model of R&D valuation, which takes into account the uncertainty in the quality of the research output, the time and cost to completion, and the market demand for the R&D output. The model is then applied to study the problem of pharmaceutical under-investment in R&D for vaccines to treat diseases affecting the developing regions of the world. To address this issue, world organizations and private foundations are willing to sponsor vaccine R&D, but there is no consensus on how to administer the sponsorship effectively. Different research incentive contracts are examined using our valuation model. Their effectiveness is measured in the following four dimensions: cost to the sponsor, the probability of development success, the consumer surplus generated and the expected cost per person successfully vaccinated. We find that, in general, purchase commitment plans (pull subsidies) are more effective than cost subsidy plans (push subsidies), while extending patent protection is completely ineffective. Specifically, we find that a hybrid subsidy constructed from a purchase commitment combined with a sponsor co-payment feature produces the best results in all four dimensions of the effectiveness measure.

Suggested Citation

  • Jason C. Hsu & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2003. "A Model of R&D Valuation and the Design of Research Incentives," NBER Working Papers 10041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael Kremer, 2001. "Creating Markets for New Vaccines - Part II: Design Issues," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 1, pages 73-118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Ernst R. Berndt, 2002. "Pharmaceuticals in U.S. Health Care: Determinants of Quantity and Price," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 45-66, Fall.
    3. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    4. Adam B. Jaffe & Josh Lerner & Scott Stern, 2002. "Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 2," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number jaff02-1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Darren Filson & Neal Masia, 2007. "Effects of profit-reducing policies on firm survival, financial performance, and new drug introductions in the research-based pharmaceutical industry," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4-5), pages 329-351.
    2. Boyarchenko, Svetlana & Levendorskii, Sergei, 2008. "Exit problems in regime-switching models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 180-206, January.
    3. Philipp N. Baecker, 2007. "Real Options and Intellectual Property," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Springer, number 978-3-540-48264-2, October.
    4. Zhu, Lei & Zhang, ZhongXiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "Overseas oil investment projects under uncertainty: How to make informed decisions?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 742-762.
    5. Linda Cohen, "undated". "Patented drugs, generic alternatives, and intellectual property regimes in developing countries," American Law & Economics Association Annual Meetings 1066, American Law & Economics Association.
    6. Ángel León & Diego Piñeiro, 2004. "Valuation of a Biotech Company: A Real Options Approach," Working Papers wp2004_0420, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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